After filing the worst quarter since 2020, European stock markets open April with cautious progress, while Wall Street, positive at the start, appears volatile in the first hours of trading.
Milano closes with a gain of 0,57% to 25.163 basis points, together with Amsterdam + 0,52% Frankfurt + 0,22% Paris + 0,37% Madrid +0,71% and London + 0,29%.
Among the various sectors, the banking sector stands out thanks to the fact that the EBA judged the direct impact of the war in Ukraine on the continental system to be "manageable" (although warning of medium-term risks) and in the wake of the confirmation of the 2022 profitability by the Spanish giant Santander (+2,84% in Madrid).
On the foreign exchange market, theeuro-dollar around 1,1.
Variable mood with war, macro data and oil crash
Market sentiment remains mixed due to war in Eastern Europe and limited progress in talks, resumed online today, between Russian and Ukrainian delegates, as Moscow denies reports that President Vladimir Putin has thyroid cancer and instead says that the Ukrainians bombed a fuel territory on Russian territory, an event that could complicate the negotiations. The conflict was also at the center of today's summit between the EU and China.
Investors are also looking with concern at the trend in inflation, which runs from one side of the Atlantic to the other, mainly due to high energy costs, even if today the Petroleum falls further, after the White House, to control prices, has decided to make use of its reserves to an unprecedented extent (one million barrels per day for the next six months): Brent falls by 5,73% to 105,05 $.7,08 a barrel; Wti -100,18% XNUMX dollars a barrel.
The price of gas is partially deflated, with flows to Europe continuing and the news arriving from Russia correcting the situation again compared to yesterday. Indeed, the Kremlin spokesman clarified that supplies will not be interrupted if customers "do not" confirm payment in rubles by today, the day on which the decree signed yesterday by Putin and futures in Amsterdam reacted by dropping by more than 6 percentage points, after the initial flare-up, reaching 117 euros per MWh.
Gazprom it has also started notifying customers of the new payment mechanism, with the technical indications which require the conversion into rubles to be compulsorily.
Another burning issue is the fact that high inflation could lead central banks to more aggressive restrictive policies than expected, increasing the risks of an economic slowdown.
Among the signs that herald a recession in the US is the inversion of the yield curve between short and long, which is also seen today on T-Bonds. The spread between 2 and 10 years is practically zero, while the 5-year bond has a higher rate than the 10- and 30-year bond.
The 2,419-year treasury is currently showing declining prices and rising yields to XNUMX%.
However, the stars and stripes economy remains strong, with employment continuing to grow, albeit less than expected.
431.000 jobs were created in March (excluding the agricultural sector) compared to the previous month, while analysts expected an increase of 490.000. February and January data were revised upwards, for a combined addition of 95.000 jobs. There unemployment it fell from 3,8% to 3,6%, the best figure since the start of the pandemic, with expectations for a drop to 3,7%. Yesterday, inflation was confirmed at a 40-year high.
In the euro area, meanwhile, Eurostat signals a new inflation record in March, when prices grew by 7,5% in one year compared to 5,9% in February, mainly driven by energy goods (+44,7% compared to +32% in February). The data on Italy's manufacturing PMI index is also worse than expected, down in March to 55,8 from 58,3 in March.
Piazza Affari is waiting for Moody's
Waiting for the Moody's agency to update Italy's sovereign debt rating tonight, Milan appreciates with financial and health stocks.
In the first sector, Finecobank rose +3,36%; Mediobanca +1,84%; Generali +1,64%; Banking Mediolanum +1,7%; Bper +1,7%. Well Unicredit, +1,49%, which communicated that it has completed the sale of the shares held in Yapı ve Kredi Bankası (YKB), for 18% of the capital, to Koc Holding. The completion of the transaction will have a positive mid-high single digit impact (between 5 and 10 points) on the institution's consolidated CET1 in Q2022 XNUMX.
Among the best blue chips of the day there are Amplifon, +3,31% and Diasorin +2,57%. Among the oil companies, it is confirmed on the rise Saipem +2,18%. Also in the top ten Campari, +1,66%, which was included in Equita's list of preferred stocks.
The black jersey also goes to today Telecom, -3,45%, with Barclays which cut the target price to 0,13 euro. They are negative stm -2,42%; Interpump -1,88%; nexi -1,62%.
The spread goes up
The closure is in red for the Italian secondary. The spread between 10-year BTPs and Bunds with the same duration, it rises to 154 basis points (+2,7%), with the yield of the former growing to 2,1% (from 2,04% yesterday) and that of the latter to +0,56 .0,54% (from +XNUMX%).
