2024 was a particularly complex year for theItalian manufacturing industryProduction recorded a contraction of -2,2% in the first eleven months, a result that is still better than other major European countries such as France (-3,2%) And Germany (-4,8%), the latter in structural difficulty. In contrast, the Spain closed at +0,7%, although still far from pre-Covid levels.
According to the New Industry Sector Analysis Report for February 2025 di Understanding St. Paul e Promethea Italian industry is preparing for a restart in 2025, driven by the export, from the resumption of the consumption and from a return to the investments. Falling inflation and growing domestic consumption will help sectors such as food, while investments, thanks to the Transition 5.0 plan, will boost metalworking and construction. However, global uncertainty combined with risk of US tariffs, remains a threat that the industry will have to address with caution.
Resumption of exports to Europe
La question European will represent an important driving force for the relaunch of Italian exports. Already in the summer of 2024, the exports di beni manufacturing towards EU countries recorded a moderate growth (+1,9% at constant prices and +1,6% at current values in the four-month period July-October), recovering ground compared to the first half of the year. The resumption of trade in intermediate goods in the two-month period September-October (Metallurgy +6%, Chemical intermediates +4,4% at constant prices) anticipates a recovery of production cycles in the Eurozone, including Germany, which nevertheless remains the weak link in European industry.
Consumption on the Rise: The Return of Purchasing Power
The easing of inflation and the improvement of employment will strengthen the consumption in 2025. The benefits will be particularly evident in products food And in the services, while the Fashion System and durable goods, such as motor vehicles, will continue to show signs of weakness. At European level, the purchasing power of families is showing signs of recovery, with an acceleration of Italian exports of consumer goods (Food and beverages +7,9%, Consumer goods +6,3% at constant prices in the two-month period September-October 2024).
Investments, welcome back
The capital goods industry finally sees a light at the end of the tunnel. After the stalemate of 2024, the drop in interest rates and the simplifications linked to the Transition 5.0 plan will favor a return on investment in machinery and equipment.
The Bank of Italy survey conducted between November and December 2024 confirms that many companies plan to expand investments already in the first half of 2025, with positive effects on sectors such as Metalworking. The sector of the construction shows positive signs, thanks to the funds of the Pnrr which will continue to support infrastructure and materials such as cement, concrete and metal products, which are essential for public works.
Domestic market in pain, exports stronger
Il turnover manufacturing, although declining, remains at historically high levels, with a contraction of -2,5% at constant prices and -3,6% at current values in the first 11 months of 2024. The negative trend is influenced by the fall in producer prices (-1,1% in the same period). Despite the slowdown, the overall value of industrial turnover still exceeds 1.100 billion euros, a figure close to the record of the two-year period 2022-2023, underlining the resilience of Italian manufacturing.
Il internal market records a more significant drop in turnover (over -3% in the first 11 months of 2024), while the component Esther holds up better with a decrease of -1,7%, supported by exports slightly growing in volume (+0,5%).
A two-speed manufacturing sector
Some manufacturing sectors have proven more resilient than others. The Pharmaceutical (+ 6,3%) and the Length Consumption (+4,9%) are among the most dynamic, while theFood and drinks (+1,2%) benefits from the recovery of family incomes. Also good is theElectrical engineering (+1,2%), supported by the double digital and environmental transition.
Among the producers of intermediate goods, the real outsider is the Metallurgy, which recorded a growth of +3,3%, driven by non-ferrous metals linked to the ecological transition and gold, a safe haven in times of uncertainty. More stable, but still recovering, are the Chemical Intermediates and Building materials, which exploit the impetus of public works such as cement and concrete. On the contrary, they are going into reverse Metal products (-3,3%) and the other intermediates (-1,7%), with worsening especially at the end of the year. Among the latter, the rebound of the paper supply chain is not enough to compensate for the losses in wood (connected to residential construction) and rubber, hit by the difficulties of theAutomotive, the sector most in crisis in 2024 (-14,8%), blocked by a complicated transition to electric and weak European demand.
Among the rear lights, we also find the System Fashion (-8,5%), which suffers on all fronts, including luxury, together with theElectronics (-7,3%) and to the Mechanics (-6,5%), crushed by the slowdown in investments. The producers of durable household goods: Furnishings and, especially, Appliances, still entangled in now structural crises.
Risks and unknowns: eyes on US tariffs
Despite signs of recovery, the scenario remains complex. A crucial issue is the trade policies of the new American administration. duties o new barriers could penalize key sectors such as Mechanics, Automotive and Food, which allocate over 12% of their exports to the US market. However, the solidity of bilateral investments between Italy and the United States could mitigate the risks, favoring solutions negotiations and ensuring continuity in the growth in exports, already observed in the last five years.
It will be a year of challenges and opportunities. The recovery is there, but it is not yet as solid as we would like. Italian industry has the tools to return to growth, but it will have to navigate carefully among global risks, always keeping an eye on the routes of international markets.
