The year begins with the brakes on, for Italian manufacturing. This was decreed - numbers in hand - by Prometeia in its analysis of the industrial sectors in July, relating to the period January-May 2019.
“The growth in turnover, measured at current prices – write the Prometeia researchers – remained limited to a 0.5% trend in the January-May period and falls into negative territory if it is considered net of the price trend (-0.3%) ”. It is a lackluster figure that originates, the Prometeia analysis goes on to explain, in the climate of strong uncertainty that characterizes the scenario, both internally and internationally, and which has led to a loss of confidence among operators and a widespread drop in investments by businesses. This prudent attitude is also found in the consumption choices of Italian families, so that the prospects for the second half of 2019 remain uncertain and any improvement that could be achieved on the domestic side would risk being offset by the worsening of the international situation.
In short, a grip from which Italian industry does not seem to be able to easily free itself. And so, if exports prove to be dynamic and companies capable of exporting their products, the data is varied and differentiated with even significant deviations.
"The export of manufactured products increased by a 3.5% trend in the January-April period, at current values, accelerating the growth rate compared to the 2018 average (+2.7%)" writes Prometeia.
The growth in the turnover of construction products and materials was above the average, a sector which is showing a robust recovery, thanks to the very positive performance of the construction industry. There was also a marked increase in the turnover of Mechanics, which benefits from the driving force of foreign markets, as well as the stability of domestic demand. The dynamism demonstrated by the food and beverages and the fashion system was also good, ahead of sectors with moderate growth, such as FMCG and metal products. Substantially stable, on the values of 2018, the Other intermediates and Furniture.
On the other hand, it is the negative performance of motor vehicles and motorcycles that has driven down the overall growth rate of manufacturing in the first five months of the year. The difficulties of the sector, grappling with technological changes and with declining demand, also conditioned the performance of chemical intermediates, metallurgy and electrotechnics, despite the support offered by the recovery of the building sector.
The main risk factors concern the US-China trade war and the uncertainty it has caused, with a slowdown in global growth. And the scenario risks also include a possible worsening linked to a further US protectionist drift towards European imports”. Prometeia foresees a further slowdown for Mechanics in the second half of the year and an uncertain trend for Electronics and Motor vehicles and motorcycles, against, however, good prospects for sectors linked to the building cycle.
