in 2021 the Italian industry has achieved a recovery that is unprecedented in post-war history, with double-digit percentages that have allowed the entire country to exceed pre-Covid levels, but above all to raise its head again after the very heavy difficulties experienced in 2020 due to the pandemic . This is what can be seen from the new one edition of the “Cumulative Data” published by the Mediobanca Research Area. An annual survey of large and medium-sized Italian industrial and tertiary companies based on the examination of 2145 Italian companies representing 47% of industrial and manufacturing turnover, 36% of transport and 41% of retail detail.
The unprecedented recovery of Italian industry
In 2020, due to the pandemic crisis, the turnover of Italian companies collapsed by 12,3%. 2021 ended with a rebound of 25,6% deriving from both domestic sales (+25,1%) and exports (+26,5%). “It is a question – explains the Mediobanca Research Area – of gaps unparalleled in postwar history of our industry which bear witness to the peculiarity of what happened, but also to the effectiveness with which the monetary and fiscal authorities have managed the junction and overall reactivity of our production system”.
In detail, in 2021 the turnover of the 2145 companies taken into consideration by the survey not only recovered from the drop recorded in the previous year, but also stood at +10,1% compared to 2019. The recovery was led by public companies which, thanks to energy (+32,4%) and oil (+15,2%), recorded a recovery of 22,9%, almost four times greater than the +6,6 .XNUMX% achieved by private companies.
Le industrial companies recorded a growth of 13,1%, which becomes +9,1% excluding energy and oil. There manufacturing (+9,3%) "confirms the extraordinary capabilities of IV capitalism (+14,3% on 2019) which doubles the major groups (+7,1%)", underlines the report.
From a sectoral point of view, in manufacturing, the best performances were achieved by metallurgy (+35,9% on 2019), appliances and radio-TV sets (+ 32,2%), wood and furniture (+19,8%), chemicals (+17,4%) and rubber and cables (+15,1%). On the other hand, textiles (-8,7%), clothing (-7,7%) and leather and hide processing (-2,7%) are still lagging behind at the end of 2021, together with the media sector: publishing -8,3%, radio and television broadcasting -6,5% and telecommunications -3,1%.
Comparison with other crises
The exceptional nature of the post-Covid recovery can also be seen from the comparison with the previous economic and financial crises. "It has never happened - underlines Mediobanca - that, after a very substantial decline, the recovery was completed in the course of just one year".
In 2009, for example, the industry lost 14,7% of its turnover and it was necessary two years of growth to even out the levels of sales in 2008. The subsequent sovereign debt crisis (2012-2013) then held back the further recovery. Today the geopolitical crisis could play a similar role.
Domestic demand and tax incentives underpinning the recovery
The return above the pre-pandemic turnover was mainly fueled by domestic demand: sales within national borders marked a 12,2% growth on 2019, those destined across the border by 6,4%. The tax incentives and the launch of the PNRR which continue to affect construction, household appliances and furniture "should act in a favorable sense with multiplier effects also on the rest of the economy", predicts the survey.
Finally, it should be noted why, as regards export, some sectors recorded stratospheric increases: household appliances (+32,9%), metallurgical (+30,1%), wood and furniture (+21,4%) and chemicals (+14%) in addition to all food specialties (from +18,4% for miscellaneous to +8,2% for confectionery).
From inflation 67 billion of higher costs
One of the most interesting topics touched upon by the Mediobanca Research Area report is the impact of inflation on the cost of purchasing goods and services. Net of the capitalized portion, they amount to 84,5% of revenues. Assuming a 10% price increase, the experts calculate, their incidence would rise to 93% of turnover, keeping the latter constant. In absolute terms it is about 65 billion in higher costs to which they should be added 2 billion higher cost of debt. If these 67 billion were reversed on sales prices, in constant volumes, they would compound revenue growth of 8,7%, with Mon accounting for 4,5% of sales. In the event of the overturning of 50% of the higher costs on the turnover, this would increase, for the same volumes, by 4,4% but the quota charged to the Mon would reduce it to just 0,5% of the sales.
"In the static hypothesis of unchanged volumes - continues Mediobanca - the evolution of turnover in 2021 in relation to various options for the reversal of higher costs would have a consequent effect on the ebit margin which would remain positive up to the 50% threshold. If, on the other hand, companies intended to preserve the ebit margin in 2021, the increase in the selling prices they would have to practice would be 9,6%”.
Industry: forecasts for 2022
As for 2022, “it is possible that the role of domestic demand remains relevant also in the near future since, despite the headwinds linked to inflation and the growth of interest rates, the measures of the PNRR and those of tax relief should act in a favorable way, with significant multiplier effects on the rest of the economy", predicts Mediobanca .
Speaking in percentage terms, according to estimates, for manufacturing, 2022 should close with a growth in fcaptured equal to 7,5% (nominal). However, the unknown factor remains the fragile balance of margins which could be compromised by the persistence of inflationary pressures linked to the economic situation”, warn the experts.
