Despite increased restrictions due to Covid, the Italian industry holds. According to the latest rapid survey by the Confindustria Study Centre, in March production it stopped growing on a monthly basis, recording -0,1% after +0,6% in February and +1% in January. However, "in the first quarter of 2021 an increase of 1,0% is estimated compared to the fourth quarter of 2020 - writes the CsC - Despite the increase in restrictions in Italy, the industry therefore confirms a good hold, in this phase supported more by the acceleration of foreign demand".
In reverse, internal demand it is less dynamic due to the anti-contagion limitations and "affects the tertiary sector, which in the first quarter weighs down the GDP dynamics, expected to show a marginal decline".
In general, therefore, Confindustria confirms the climate of general optimism that emerged from the latest survey on the PMI manufacturing index of Italy.
If we look at the comparison on an annual basis, the variation is clearly conditioned by the harshness of the 2020 lockdown: last month there was in fact a stellar increase in production (+38%) compared to March last year.
For the orders, volumes increased by 0,7% on February (+40,5% on March 2020), when they had grown by 0,5% on January (-0,3% on an annual basis).
“The good performance of industry – continues the analysis – contributes positively to GDP in the first quarter; however, due to the negative dynamics of services - especially those related to the tourism chain (still in great difficulty) - the change in GDP it is expected to be slightly negative compared to the end of 2020".
In general, according to the CSC, "in the face of favorable indications on the dynamics of industry, we must be aware that a large portion of the Italian economy - that of services, which covers about three quarters of the national added value - is still in severe suffering and will be able to fully restart only when the contagion curve drops again and the restrictions are gradually lifted. In this respect, therefore, it is crucial that the vaccination campaign proceeds quickly and efficiently, as guaranteed by the Government; if for some reason this does not happen, the risk is that the awaited recovery will still be late in starting”.
