Bad for Italian industry in September. According to the latest data published by the Confindustria Study Centre, Italy's average daily production fell by 1,2% on an annual basis last month, after the even heavier drop recorded in August (-2,7%). Overall, compared to the peak recorded in July 2008, before the crisis, the level of activity remains 18,5% lower.
However, compared with the lows of March 2009, 10,3% was recovered. Furthermore, in September activity decreased by 0,6% on August, when instead there had been an increase of 0,3% on the previous month. Better news on the orders front, where the twelve-month change was +0,1% in September, compared to -0,7% in the previous month. On a monthly basis, the drop was 0,5% compared to August, a month in which orders in turn decreased by 0,3% compared to July.
As for the quarterly data, between July and September the CSC estimates a drop in production of 1,4%, after the improvement in the second quarter (+1,2%) and the slight decrease in the first (-0,2% on quarter 2010). Between October and January, a still negative trend is looming.
The variation inherited from the previous period is -0,3% and the trends revealed by the Istat survey on confidence in manufacturing businesses are worsening: in September the balance of judgments on orders dropped to a year-low (at -27, from -21), especially that relating to domestic demand (to -30, the lowest since July 2010). Expectations for orders (balance at 2) and production (-1) returned to the levels of September 2009. A clear decrease in demand was also noted in the PMI survey: index of new orders at 45,1 from 44,0 August.
