Italian industrial production she's already back at pre-Covid levels. It certifies it Bank of Italy in his last monthly bulletin, explaining that in the third quarter there was a rebound of 30% and that thanks to this surge, the industry has returned "to volumes prior to the start of the epidemic". An undoubtedly positive signal, even if it is too early to say what will happen in the coming months, especially in light of the recent growth in infections, the future trend of which is difficult to predict.
In any case, Bank of Italy underlines that production "had fallen sharply in April, but had already partially recovered in May and June", and then "further increased in July and August (by 7% and 7,7% respectively). , supported above all by capital goods and intermediate goods”.
Not only that: the survey on companies carried out by Palazzo Koch in September "confirms the recovery in progress: the proportion of companies that expects an improvement in the general economic situation compared to the previous three months rises to 30%, from 3% in the last survey ”.
For the gross domestic product, in the third quarter "the return to growth was probably more sustained than anticipated in July - continues Via Nazionale - Also thanks to the stimulus measures, GDP increase may have been around 12%” compared to the April-June period, mainly thanks to the “strong recovery of the industry”. In the first quarter, GDP fell by 5% and by 13% in the second.
"The prospects for services remain more uncertain - writes Bankitalia again - recovering also due to the good performance of domestic tourist flows but still at very low levels of activity".
The families, on the other hand, show "a gradual improvement in their economic conditions, but also report a high propensity to save for precautionary purposes - reads the bulletin - Looking ahead, the risk remains significant that the global evolution of the pandemic could continue to have repercussions on the household and business confidence or global demand remains weak”.
For all these reasons, the Bank of Italy confirms that throughout 2020 the Italian GDP should record a decrease of just under 10%, to then take the path of a "very gradual" recovery in the coming years. "The Italian economy will need two years to return to pre-Covid levels" argued the governor of Bank of Italy, Ignazio Visco, who also reiterated in an interview with Bloomberg TV that Italian debt "is sustainable". Not only: "We are observing better than expected third-quarter GDP data", but, also in light of the increase in infections, "we expect 'stop and go', so we must be prepared”, while fiscal and monetary policies “must remain accommodative”.
