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Industry, the brakes are coming. Germany, confidence collapses

Alarm bell for the recovery of industrial production in Italy: in September the figure is more than 5% lower than in August, according to Istat. In Germany, the Zew index fell sharply in November and the stock markets slowed down

Industry, the brakes are coming. Germany, confidence collapses

Industrial production slowed down in September, although in the quarter from July to September it recorded a rebound of 28,6% compared to the previous quarter, the one essentially conditioned by the first lockdown. The data is published by Istat, according to which in September the seasonally adjusted industrial production index decreased by 5,6% compared to August and 2,1% on a crude basis. The seasonally adjusted index shows cyclical decreases in all sectors: consumer goods (-4,8%), instrumental goods (-3,9%), intermediate goods (-1,6%) and energy (-0,3%).

In Germany, the Zew index of economic expectations collapsed in November to 39 points from 56,1 in October. The result is just below the expectations that estimated it at 40 points. According to the president of Zew Achim Wambach the trend is due to "concerns about the economic impact of the second wave of COVID-19". Declining industry and confidence curbed the enthusiasm of the European stock exchanges, all slowing down after Monday's flare-up.

Corrected for calendar effects, the Italian industrial production index decreases in trend terms by 5,1% (there were 22 working days against 21 in September 2019). The declines were greater for capital goods (-7,1%), consumer goods (-5,7%) and intermediate goods (-4,2%), while the energy remains stationary (-0,1%). The only sectors of economic activity that recorded tendential increases are mining (+2,7%), the supply of electricity, gas, steam and air (+2%) and other industries (+0,2%). ; major declines for the textile, clothing, leather and accessories industries (-20,8%), in the manufacture of coke and products.

The French data was also released today, which shows that instead transalpine industrial production continued its rebound in September, marking a growth of 1,4% compared to August, but remaining 5,1% below the level of February, before the coronavirus crisis erupted. Manufacturing production, which had marked +0,8% in August, accelerated beyond expectations to +2,2% in September, according to data communicated by Insee, the French statistical institute, but compared to February is still down 5,5%.

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