“The hyper-depreciation cost 13 billion in tax breaks in four years, but according to estimates it will free up 10 billion a year of investments in technology by companies: it is also thanks to this that we have a growing GDP and falling unemployment . And in fact Macron is actually copying us with his 10 billion fund for innovation”. Marco Taisch, professor at the School of Management of the Milan Polytechnic and scientific co-responsible of the Industry 4.0 Observatory, thus comments the balance sheet of the first year since the launch of the Industry 4.0 plan, afterwards the presentation of the 2018 guidelines by the Government: "The bonus has already met with considerable success among companies, now the challenge is that of training, for which the Politecnico di Milano is already ready, but it is the Roman bureaucracy that slows everything down". Here is the interview he gave to FIRSTonline.
Professor Taisch, if you had to explain it in simple terms, how would you define the Industry 4.0 plan?
“We talk about Industry 4.0 when a series of technologies, from automation to the Internet of things, from the cloud to Big Data, from sensors to artificial intelligence, are used in production processes, i.e. in factories, to collect data in real time and make them immediately available to those who have to make decisions, who will therefore make them faster and even better".
Why even better?
“Because, for example, artificial intelligence allows you to make simulations that allow you to have ready-made solutions to the problem. It's like with weather forecasts: I can have real-time data on the weather, but also elaborate sophisticated forecasting models”.
Will this allow you to produce more, optimizing resources and time?
“Sure, and that's what the market is asking for now. The market today wants two things above all: increasingly personalized products, just think that a Mercedes C-Class has 7-8 variations from color to all the options, and even a Nike shoe has hundreds; and fast delivery times. In the Amazon era, mass production far from outlet markets no longer works. The large factory in China is no longer doing well, because the products would have to travel too much. Industry 4.0 can, taking advantage of this phenomenon, become an opportunity for relocating companies in Italy: also because a machine or a robot costs the same in Italy or in China".
But if labor will have less impact on the cost of production, does it also mean that there will be less of it and that it will be replaced – at least in part – by technology?
“The consequence may be this for an individual company, but if a company produces more, it earns even more and will have more opportunities to grow and therefore to create jobs. Not to mention that if I relocate, there will still be more companies in Italy and companies, even the most automated ones, cannot do without human personnel: just think of all the work of reading data, information, planning. New skills will be needed, but there will be plenty of work".
However, the unions are divided between "technophobic" and "techno-optimistic".
“I agree with Marco Bentivogli of Fim Cisl, when he says that technology actually saves jobs, because it allows the return of production from abroad or avoids their escape”.
As they say, jobs will be lost but new ones will be created. But by when will the balance be positive, in your opinion?
“Yes, that's right. In the short term, we risk a negative balance, also because the relocation may not be so rapid, but in my opinion, the balance will be positive as early as 2020".
He therefore does not agree with the study presented at the Ambrosetti Forum in Cernobbio, according to which the share of Italian workers at risk of automation over the next 15 years is 14,9%, with an estimated job loss between 1,6, 4,3 million and 2033 million between now and 2024, and a sharp surge starting from XNUMX.
“No, because it only concerns repetitive professions. The intellectual professions, on the other hand, will even benefit from it, given that for example a doctor will be less busy in some activities if replaced by a machine, and will be able to devote himself better to other things such as patient care or research. The salary will always be the same, but his productivity will increase. Some repetitive activities will instead disappear or decrease, this is true, but in the end all industrial revolutions have always produced added value in terms of employment. And the fourth revolution is now inexorable”.
Why?
“Because unlike the first, which happened first in factories and then among people, in this case exactly the opposite is happening. We have all been using the Internet for 15-20 years, it is already in our daily lives even before entering industrial processes, and it is therefore obvious and inevitable that it does".
However, this revolution must be accompanied by it, also because Italy has a productive fabric made up above all of SMEs and family businesses, sometimes not very inclined to innovate.
“We know this and in fact the great challenge is that of training. What has already been done, such as depreciation, is working and it is also thanks to what we see better macroeconomic data. But we need to think about the training of new technical skills that will serve to accompany the new industry and to replace the jobs that will disappear, and in this it is important to focus on higher technical institutes; training for workers over 50 or in any case not digital natives, and for this reason the solution of the tax credit on training is fine; and training for companies, through the Competence Centers, which however are still closed".
Minister Calenda said that the tender for 20 million a year will be released shortly, but in the meantime, can you explain to us what Competence Centers are and how they will work?
“Calenda is right and the Mise is not to blame: the decree has been ready for months but is blocked by the Roman bureaucracy. Even the Politecnico di Milano and other universities are ready, we are just waiting for the announcement. What will the competence centers be? Images of large showrooms where companies can touch what a connected factory is”.
Excluding the part on training and awareness of the tool even by the smallest companies, it seems that Italy is finally in step with the big Europeans on Industry 4.0: is this really the case?
"It is true. Germany started in 2011 and already has 35 competence centers, which they call testbeds. But we can recover, also thanks to the trilateral cooperation that we have started with France and Germany on this, and of which I am the coordinator on behalf of the Polytechnic. Our companies are still behind, but in some ways the project is even better than that of others: the truth is that, as often happens, we are stopped by bureaucracy".
In addition to the centers of expertise, Minister Calenda identified two other critical issues that emerged in this first year of the launch of the Industry 4.0 plan: broadband and venture capital for startups. What do you think?
“On the connection, I have little to add: if we move more and more towards a data economy, we must build a data highway. On startups, on the other hand, I would be less pessimistic, in the sense that I believe less in the fact that they are really capable of having an impact on the country's economy. Italy has a manufacturing vocation: manufacturing produces 50% of GDP and the banks tell us that there is liquidity in companies, only that it is not invested in innovation. Now thanks to depreciation it shouldn't be like this anymore. Startups are also a bit of a trend, it is certainly not thanks to them that we are improving employment and GDP: on the contrary, what I would define as an obsession has almost risked demotivating the traditional entrepreneur, making him feel out of the game. There's too much talk about nerd who invent Facebook in the basement, but we have to make industry and create jobs”.
More technology at the service of traditional companies and not so much (or at least not only) technological companies tout court: can it be summarized as follows?
“It would take something in between, but let's say yes”.
