The signs of a possible peace between the US and China are strengthening. The Financial Times reports that Robert Lightizer, head of the US administration for trade, told a delegation of industrialists that the increases already decided on tariffs are suspended. Meanwhile, work is underway on the success of the Trump-Xi summit scheduled in Buenos Aires on the occasion of the G20. Beijing, another positive figure, has sent a written response to the US requests divided into 142 paragraphs. The positions remain distant, but there is a dialogue.
The news obscures, at least in part, the concerns coming from Europe grappling with Brexit and thus allows the markets to start the weekend without new stress.
CHINA ADVANCES, NEW STORMY ON THE CHIPS
Chinese markets end the week on the upswing. The CSI 300 stock index of Shanghai and Shenzhen gains 0,7%, the Hang Seng of Hong Kong 0,3%. Seoul (+0,3%) and Mumbai (+0,7%) also rose.
On the other hand, the Japanese price lists (Nikkei -0,1%), Taiwan (-0,4%) and the markets most sensitive to the trend of the semiconductor Bigs were negative. The forecasts of Nvidia, Applied Materials and Intel on the trend of sales in the last quarter of 2018 weigh heavily. The stocks, which closed the official session on Wall Street in positive territory, recorded a shower of sales after the Stock Exchange: Nvidia, mainly active in the graphics sector, lost 14%, AMD 10%.
The trend of the US indices does not register this landslide: Dow Jones +0,83%, S&P 500 +1,06%. The Nasdaq rallied 1,72%.
RECOVER APPLE, STILL TROUBLE FOR FACEBOOK
Leading the rally was the recovery of Apple (+2,5%) and the other tech giants. The exception is Facebook (-0,4%), once again at the center of a scandal: the New York Times claims that one of its top executives worked behind the scenes to hinder the internal investigation into the disinformation campaign carried out by some Russian subjects , especially against George Soros.
Oil also recovered, at 67,7 dollars a barrel (+0,8%). US strategic inventories rose about 10 million barrels, the largest weekly change in nearly two years. The data on inventories could give additional elements to those within OPEC who support the reasons for a production cut. Yesterday in Piazza Affari Eni +0,3%, Saipem -1,1%, Tenaris +1,2%.
BITCOIN FLUSHED. ROUBINI: WORTH LESS THAN ZERO
Worth noting is the collapse of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. After breaking the 6.000 dollars downwards, the virtual currency marks a further 12 percent fall to 5.427 dollars. “I could gloat about the collapse, but Bitcoin is still far from its true value: zero”, is the caustic comment of the economist Nouriel Roubini. Indeed, "since it is the basis of environmental disasters and pollution, the true value is below zero".
BREXIT STORM BENDS STERLING
The battle of England has further complicated a European scenario already tense due to the duel between Rome and the European Union and due to signs of a slowdown in the economy, starting with Germany. Yesterday morning, after the suffered green light to the plan developed by the premierfour members of the London Executive resigned and a motion of no confidence in Theresa May was requested.
The political tussle also caused the pound to drop sharply, which rapidly depreciated to 1,2785 against the dollar, while yields on Gilts, British government bonds, are down sharply. Nomura lists the possible developments of the crisis: the approval of the agreement in Parliament, a second referendum, early elections. Finally, the hard Brexit, i.e. divorce without any agreement, the prospect that scares both London and the European Union the most.
BUSINESS PLACE AGAIN BLACK JERSEY -0,9%
The curse of the "black shirt" continues in Piazza Affari. Milan is again the worst stock exchange with a drop of 0,9% below 19 (closing at 18.905 points).
Negative session also for the other European markets: Frankfurt, -0,51%: Paris -0,7%; Madrid -0,25%.
Paradoxically, the only one to save itself is the City +0,06%. The apparent strangeness can be explained by the sharp drop in the pound (the euro appreciated by 1,77% to 0,8866), meanwhile the race for the Queen's gilts has taken shape (the 1,373-year yield falls to XNUMX %).
THE SPREAD RISES TO 319 POINTS
Uncertain session for the Italian secondary, which soon thwarted the initial rebound attempt with the spread between 320-year BTPs and Bunds arriving close to 313 points during the day and then returning in the final to around 3,5 points for a XNUMX-year yield in the area XNUMX%.
The Italian paper, in addition to the pressure for the clash with Brussels, paid for the rush to the Bund, a safe haven par excellence, triggered by the crisis across the Channel.
While on the one hand the Italian paper remains under pressure due to the clash between Rome and Brussels on the 2019 maneuver, on the other the difficult path of Brexit - with the resignation of some ministers of the May government and the specter of a 'no deal' - has stoked the appetite for safe-haven assets such as German government bonds.
Meanwhile, the flight of non-residents from Italian government bonds continues: according to what was communicated by the Bank of Italy in August, foreign investors cut another 15 billion and the stock has thus fallen by 65 billion since April.
PRYSMIAN UNDER FIRE, HOLDS PIRELLI
The worst stock was Prysmian (-5,1%) with above-average trading despite the fact that the cable company closed the third quarter with 238 million euros of adjusted Ebitda, up 31% year on year, slightly better than the estimates. At the end of September the debt was 2,87 billion euros, in line with consensus forecasts: by the end of the year it is expected to fall to 2,33 billion euros.
The best stock was Pirelli: +1,27% after reaching a peak of +2%. Yesterday the company presented its quarterly accounts in line with analysts' expectations and updated its estimates for 2018. Revenues of 1,29 billion euros, -4,3% year on year, below consensus estimates due to a deterioration of the mix. Adjusted Ebitda at 320 million euros, better than analysts' expectations. The company has revised its forecasts for 2018 revenues downwards, to 5,2 billion euros, from the previous 5,4 billion, but the consensus had already considered the cut. Estimate regarding operating profit confirmed.
DOWN THE BANKS. EUROPE IS WORSE
For once, the banking sector, albeit negative (sector index -0,9%), did better than the European sector (-1,6%), despite the rising spread.
Almost all stocks down: Banco Bpm -1%, Unicredit -0,6%. Bper (+0,8%) goes against the trend. New closure in the red for Banca Carige (-5%).
Stm (-0,8%) paid the alarm triggered on Ams: the sensor manufacturer has cut its 15 revenue estimates by 2018% because one of its large customers is reducing orders. The stock of the Austrian company, listed in Zurich, fell by up to 10% in the morning and then recovered up to -0,9%. The nervousness is due to the fact that it is possible that the customer in question is Apple, which represents more than 10% of revenues.
BLACK SMOKE FOR TELECOM
Black smoke for the choice of Amos Genish's successor in Tim (-0,6%). The nomination committee that was supposed to provide an advisory opinion on the successor to the CEO position will meet even before the board meeting on Sunday. The choice will be between Alfredo Altavilla, in pole position until yesterday, and Luigi Gubitosi
An about-face by Moncler which, after canceling the rise at the start of the session, closed 3,5% down. Other sector stocks across Europe are also negative after data on Chinese consumption slowdown.
Salini Impregilo (+1,8%) presented an expression of interest for the Astaldi group, finished in agreement last month under the weight of 2 billion in debt.
Well Ima (+4,3%) and Gima TT (+3,08%) after the announcement of the launch of the buyback plan.
Mondo TV, in volatility for most of the session after losing more than 18%, closed at -20,4% after issuing a profit warning during the day for year-end results.
