It begins with a roar of the Tokyo Stock Exchange, up 1,3%, the year of the Tiger according to the Chinese calendar. The Dragon Exchanges, as well as those of South Korea and Taiwan, will be closed for the whole week, as will almost all economic activities. The Winter Olympics in Beijing will open on Friday. Before closing its doors, Chinese finance has updated the data, not exciting, of the economic situation: the PMI manufacturing index fell in January to 50,1 from 50,3 last month. The decline calculated by Caixin, sensitive to private industry, is deeper: the indicator scores 49,1, below the threshold of 50 points which separates contraction from expansion.
However, the Stock Exchange is open Hong Kong, +1% on boost from tech stocks, in sync with the Nasdaq's rebound on Friday. The stock market is down slightly Sidney. Tomorrow the Reserve Bank of Australia should confirm the value of the cost of money, announce the end of QE and provide indications on the next monetary policy moves.
Futures, commodities and currencies
The futures on the US stock exchanges and on the Eurostoxx +1,2%. The Petroleum WTI is up 1% to $87,8 a barrel. OPEC+ meets on Wednesday. Gold down 0,1% to 1.789 dollars, at these prices, the month ended with a drop of 2,2%. The Treasury Notes ten-year trades at 1,79%. In slight recoveryEuro, to 1,116 at the start of a new delicate week for central banks.
Weekly appointments
The highlight of the week will be the directorate of the European Central Bank, in which the hawks, who are demanding measures against rapidly growing inflation, especially in Germany, and the ECB's approach, reluctant to touch the interest rate lever, will face each other. The prediction is that the institute will confirm the "soft" policy for now.
The speech in the United Kingdom is different, where a speech by the Bank of England: forecasts indicate a 25 basis point hike to bring rates to 0,5%.
On Wall Street the spotlight is still on on the quarterly reports: the accounts of A need Amazon. Wednesday it's up to Meta (formerly Facebook). To follow on Wednesday the monthly meeting of theOpec +, called upon to decide production levels for March.
The scenario in the USA
In the meantime, pressure on real rates is growing, thanks to the decisive change of course by the Fed. Over the weekend it was Raphael Bostic of the Atlanta Fed who held the flag of the squeeze: the Fed could raise interest rates by half a point if inflation should remain very high, he said. The banker, in an interview with Financial Times, nor did he rule out more robust interventions at the Fed's meetings (seven in all) in 2022.
On Friday, the new governors, Raskin, Cook, Jefferson, all Democrats, appointed by Joseph Biden, will parade in Congress.
The eyes of the markets on Italy
Today, however, the attention of the markets will be concentrated on the Italian market, especially on bonds and banks. The comments of the international press applaud the result of the vote on the Quirinale, in line with the wishes of BlackRock who asked on Friday "Why change a team that wins?". The choice of the Parliament, after countless twists and turns, thus rewarded the indication coming from all the managers: the confirmation of Sergio Mattarella and, consequently, of the Draghi government is a guarantee for allies and creditors of the Bel Paese. Or for the state of health of the BTP, the acceleration of the Pnrr plan and of the reforms to be tackled shortly (energy, but not only).
The incoming macro data
Italy in the foreground, therefore, on the financial markets. Today Istat will communicate the first estimate on Italian GDP growth 2021, which will reach +6,5% instead of the 6% expected by the government, thanks to +0,6% in the fourth quarter. This was anticipated by the Minister of Public Administration, Renato Brunetta. Only France did better than Italy, in the post-Covid year, with +7%. Finally, the inflation data will arrive on Wednesday.
Much will depend on the progress of the job market. Analysts predict that the US absorbed 175 new workers in January, down from 199 in December.
