The problem is above all political, but requires a technical solution of surgical precision. The 2013 "mini-Imu" on the first house, or "residual" Imu, must be cancelled. The credibility of the Government is at stake, which for months has guaranteed the total abolition of Italy's most hated tax. But the story also touches on wider-ranging balances.
POLITICS AND CAF
In the first place, the accounting mess that so far has not allowed promises to be kept has immediately become the first electoral banner of the newly reborn Forza Italia, ready to rail against the inefficiency of the Executive in which it took part until last week. The discontent of the mayors (headed by Matteo Renzi) also weighs heavily, who need all the funds provided for by the IMU 2013 in order not to jeopardize the budgets of the Municipalities, but do not accept to unload the burden on taxpayers. Voices of protest also come from accountants and Cafs: between the publication of the decree, signed on Saturday by the Head of State, and the payment deadline, moved to January 16, 2014, time is too short and mistakes would be inevitable.
THE DEFICIT NODE
In short, the chaos around the IMU continues to dominate the Italian political-economic debate. And to say that an astronomical figure would not be needed to solve the problem: we are talking about 200 million. Any solution, however, must avoid weighing down the deficit-GDP ratio, otherwise when the accounts are closed this year, our country would risk exceeding the European ceiling of 3% once again. And the Treasury is ready to do battle to ward off such a prospect.
POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS: OTHER TAX INCREASES
It has been thought of having the tax paid and then returning it, but many believe that this route would impose too complicated procedures and calculations. The only possibility is therefore that the Government and Parliament - without touching the deficit - are able to find the necessary coverage in less than 20 days. The most likely option is that a decision is made to intervene again on tax advances: for those on Ires and Irap (already increased) there is no more time, so there would be no choice but to focus on the VAT advance (now at 88% ), which must be paid by December 27th. The increase, however, would not exclude yet another rise in excise duties.
HOW TO CALCULATE THE "MINI-IMU"
Before even thinking about where to find the resources, however, it would be necessary to know precisely the amount necessary to avoid the heavy tax. The calculation is by no means simple and for it to be definitive we will have to wait for the decisions of all the Italian mayors on the subject of rates (the deadline for modifying them is 5 December).
This is exactly where the problem of the "residual" Imu arises, which will weigh on the pockets of taxpayers in the Municipalities where the basic rate of 0,4% has been increased. According to the latest data, the cities in question would be just under 3 thousand, but the list includes most of the large centers: from Rome to Milan, from Naples to Bologna, passing through Genoa and Palermo.
The final bill for individual taxpayers should be between a minimum of 40 and a maximum of 150/200 euros. The calculation involves two fundamental steps: first it is necessary to subtract the value of the 2013 Imu (lower) from the 0,4 Imu amount (with rates higher than 2012%). Once the difference has been obtained, it is necessary to set a proportion to divide the result obtained into percentages: if nothing changes, 60% will be paid by the State, while the remaining 40% will weigh on citizens' bank accounts.
THE PICK OF THE FIRST INSTALLMENT
All of this, we reiterate, refers to the second Imu installment on the first house. As for the first installment, however, another nasty surprise has already arrived. We thought that at least that danger had escaped, but it hasn't. The coverage established months ago to cancel the first payment proved unsuccessful: for this reason the Minister of Economy, Fabrizio Saccomanni, signed the ministerial decree which triggers the safeguard clause, which provides for an increase in IRES and IRAP advances for businesses and, starting from 2015, an increase in excise duties on gas, electricity and alcohol (for once, petrol is excluded).
Initially it was envisaged that the coverage would come mainly from higher VAT revenues (925 million) linked to the payment of debts of the Public Administration for 7,2 billion euros, as well as from the amnesty in favor of the gaming concessionaires, from which around 600 million were expected EUR. All wrong forecasts: until last week, according to data from the Treasury, just over two of those 7,2 billion would have been paid (28% of the total), while from the gaming sector it seems that the Treasury has collected about half of the expected revenue. For these reasons, the effects of the Imu nightmare will also be felt in 2015. And on everyone, not just on those who own a house.
