Il climate of trust born thanks to the post-pandemic recovery cools due to the slowdown of the global economy and the sharp increase in uncertainty. Investments are stable, while employment forecasts remain positive. These are some of the data that emerge from the economic survey carried out by Turin Industrial Union e Confindustria Piedmont which collects the evaluations of almost 1.300 Piedmontese manufacturing and service companies in a particularly delicate moment.
Giorgio Marsiaj, president of the Turin Industrial Union, explains that: “We are experiencing a phase of exceptional uncertainty. The developments of the war and of the energy emergency go beyond any reasonable forecast. Inflation weighs on consumption and purchasing power; it cannot be said to be still under control despite the interventions of the central banks. Faced with such a complex and worrying scenario, however, we must not abandon ourselves to inertia or fatalism. There are many possible corrective actions for businesses and households. In this, the role of business associations is even more crucial, as it was during the pandemic. Confindustria has developed concrete and practicable proposals to reduce the energy bill and rationalize electricity and gas consumption. At the local level, the Turin Industrial Union has chosen not to remain passive or to limit itself to invoking subsidies and aid. On the contrary, we have developed a series of consultancy tools for companies such as the commodity counter, the energy consortium, consultancy interventions for energy saving, which add to the traditional support for growth, modernization and access to credit".
Of the same opinion too Marco Gay, president of Confindustria Piemonte: “The economic survey draws a scenario, despite the greatest period of uncertainty for 15 years now, of cautious optimism of reason, which is based on the order backlog, the willingness and ability of our companies to work in the present with a vision, which I would define on a higher scale. In fact, we live with a historical trajectory along which it is not the variables that change but the entire equation. And environmental, energy and technological transition do not have a long-term horizon but already a medium one. They will offer, if we know how to work together, concrete opportunities to face the present and build the future. These are issues at the center of our agendas and of the industrial policy plan shared with the Piedmont Region on which we work tirelessly thanks to a Piedmontese industry that does not want to stop or retreat, especially now".
Production down in the fourth quarter, employment holding steady
For the fourth quarter of 2022, le production expectations of Piedmontese companies recorded a drop of 11,2% compared to the third quarter: 20,3% of companies expect an increase in activity levels, against 18,2% who expect a decrease. The optimists-pessimists balance is equal to +2,1 percentage points.
17,2% of companies expect an increase inoccupation, against 7,4% who expect a reduction, and an optimistic-pessimist balance of +9,8% (and a drop of 5 points compared to June). Negative trend for orders, with a balance of -0,6%% and a drop of more than 10 points compared to the last survey.
The expectations on the'export, with an optimistic-pessimistic balance equal to -5,3%, probably due to the slowdown of world economies and the difficult situation of global trade.
Moving on to investments, the slowdown concerns 25,7% of the 1.300 companies questioned (there were 27,8% in June). Recourse to layoffs is growing, involving 8,5% of companies, up by 3,4% compared to June.
Stable the utilization rate of facilities and resources, returned to the long-term average values. The gap widens between medium-large enterprises (over 50 employees), still optimistic (balance +10,5%) and the smaller ones (under 50 employees), which record a balance of -1,6%.
In September, the majority of companies took over price increases of raw materials (75,8%) energy (91,3%) and transport (82,0%).
Territories and sectors
At the territorial level, we observe a picture with lights and shadows. On the one hand, the forecasts of Asti, Novara, Turin and Canavese remain optimistic, with balances of 10,8%, 8,1%, 6,7% and 16,3% respectively. Sudden braking at Alexandria, where forecasts are back close to zero, with the balance at 0,8%. Negative, instead the expectations a Vercelli, Verbania, Biella, Cuneo, with balances respectively at -10,2%, -6,1%, -4,1% and -1,1%.
In manufacturing, expectations for the fourth quarter of 2022 are slowing down compared to the services sector, with negative indicators, after six quarters of growth. In particular, the optimistic-pessimistic balances for orders and production are equal to -4,6% and -1,8%, down by 11,1 and 12,4 points respectively compared to the third quarter. Exports dropped by 7,7 points and recorded a balance of -5,7%.
At the sectoral level, the expectations of the engineering they remain above the regional average, as has been the case for over a year, with recourse to the CIG rising to 10%; on the other hand, investments remain high and involve 30,2% of respondents. In particular, noteworthy is the excellent performance of mechatronics (+11,2%), while the metal products sector is slowing down (-1,9%). Good performance also for the sector of installers (+19,5%) and rubber-plastic, which after the slowdown in June, records a positive balance (+4,3%).
Negative expectations in the food sector, with a balance of -2,4%, investments above the regional average (32,1%) and recourse to the CIG at 9,5%.
Curbs the sector ofbuilding which, while remaining positive, loses over 15 points and records a balance of +1,4%, lower than the regional average. Also negative were textiles (-10,6%), various manufacturing (-2,1%) and wood (-26,7%).
in services the climate of confidence is still favourable, albeit with slightly more cautious indicators than those observed in June. The balance relating to activity levels is equal to 12,1% (it was 19,9% in the last survey), that relating to orders is equal to +9,9% (from +19,0%), and that to employment is equal to +15,3%. Investments increased by 0,8 points (24%), as did recourse to the CIG (from 1,9% to 2,3%). Improve resource utilization rate (86,8%). Finally, the expectations of the companies of the tertiary are mostly optimistic for the fourth quarter of 2022, albeit with some signs of adjustment in the optimistic-pessimistic balances. Stable expectations for business services (22,2%), other services (+15,1%), utilities (10,5%), and transport (+12,9%). ICT is holding up well, with the balance on activity levels passing from +24,2% to +13,9%. Commerce and tourism collapsed (from +17,6% to -9,3%).
