La economic crisis triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic it could be less serious than the one experienced in 2008/2009 after the collapse of Lehman Brothers. This is supported by the report on the "Cumulative data of 2120 Italian companies" produced by the Mediobanca research area on the basis of the results of companies with more than 500 employees which represent about half of the Italian industrial and manufacturing turnover.
The study compares the three major economic crises of the last fifty years – precisely the Covid-19 crisis, the subprime crisis and the oil crisis of 1974/75 – coming to the conclusion that, compared to the recessions experienced in the past, this time Italian companies were able to face the difficulties that emerged in a condition of relative advantage in terms of assets, being able to count on greater liquidity and a lower debt level. These characteristics have allowed Mediobanca's experts to predict andHeavy effects, but lower than expected for 2020, but above all strong growth for next year.
THE THREE GREAT CRISIS OF THE LAST 50 YEARS
The comparison between the three major crises takes into consideration three fundamental data: turnover, added value and energy consumption. In 1975 the revenues of large companies fell by 2,1%, the added value recorded a drop of 3.3%, energy consumption marked -4,4%.
Twenty-four years later, when the collapse of Lehman Brothers shook the world finance and economy, the turnover of large Italian companies showed a double-digit drop (-14,7%), while added value and energy consumption fell 6,1% and 5,7% respectively.
What's happening today? Mediobanca estimates forecast a 2020% drop in turnover for 13,1, with a better performance for manufacturing (down between -10% and -9%) supported by the good performance of the pharmaceutical sector (+4%). and food (+2%). "This is - reads the report - a prospect far from the expectations of a double-digit drop (around 20%) widespread in the acute phase of the pandemic, even if the negative effects will be greater for SMEs than for the major companies examined here" .
How will the other industrial sectors fare? The worst collapse, according to expectations) will hit construction (-20%) real estate (-22%) and transport (-19%). The oil sector is also bad (-13%), the supply of energy and gas (-12%), and the entire non-food trade sector with declines between 20% and 30%. The food trade is stable.
As regards the other parameters, in 2020 the added value could decrease by 5%, as well as energy consumption.
STRONGER ASSETS
At the basis of these data there is, as mentioned, the greater capital solidity on which companies have been able to count to face the new crisis. In 75 financial debts amounted to 293,1% of the net capital, in 2008 they were 90%; by the end of 2019 they had dropped to 80%. Cash and cash equivalents were at zero before the oil crisis, at a nominal 38,7 billion euro on the eve of Lehman, at 72,2 billion at the end of 2019. tax rate, which went from 27,4% in 2015 to 19,4% in 2019. On the other hand, the support coming from investments appears to have weakened, especially in comparison with the 70s”.
THE FORECAST FOR 2021
Good news for the near future, with some economic indicators showing a rapid recovery in economic activity. In July 2020, the gross domestic consumption of gas recorded -4% on the same month of 2019, the least decline in 2020, the demand for electricity recorded a drop of 7% on 2019 (it was -17,2% in April) , motorway traffic lost 6,1%, industrial production decreased by 3,6% on December 2019 and by 7,6% on July. "Overall, these are not unbridgeable distances", comments Mediobanca who therefore considers "more optimistic estimates than expected" legitimate.
In particular, in 2021, the turnover of the manufacturing sector could rebound by 5,9%, while the revenues of the industry could rise by 7,5%.
