The boldest IPO ever will take place on Wall Street today: the shares of Rivian, a company that has so far produced a thousand electric cars, will be offered at a price of 77 dollars each, for a capitalization of approximately 67 billion dollars, plus by Stellantis or by Honda. At the time of the offer, the company, 22% controlled by Amazon, expects to raise 12 billion dollars, another absolute record. Bezos thus aims to challenge Tesla, which, meanwhile, yesterday lost 12% on the wave of the announcement of the sale of a 10% package in the hands of Elon Musk, who in this way will relieve himself of part of his personal debts .
In short, on the eve of the Walt Disney quarterly, the news of the US market tends to resemble a Mickey Mouse story, see the rivalry between Scrooge McDuck and Rockerduck. But this time the money is real, just as the acceleration towards the gold rush of the electric car is real, which will leave many victims on the market.
Meanwhile, after eight positive sessions or, if you prefer, 12 rises out of the last 19 (this only happened in 1971 and 1954), the New York stock markets closed down, as did the Chinese ones. In both cases there is the shadow of an unwanted guest: inflation.
The CSI 300 index of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is down 1%. In October, producer prices in China recorded the sharpest rise in the last 26 years, +13,5%. Consumer prices rose 1,5% in the same month, slightly more than expected.
Chinese real estate is once again frightening, surrounded by a worrying silence. Fantasia Holding Group, one of many Chinese developers with debt problems, was readmitted to trading after six weeks: the stock immediately plunged, now marking a 35% drop.
China Evergrande is around parity: today the conglomerate of real estate and industrial activities should pay 148 million dollars in coupons on three dollar bonds.
The Hong Kong Stock Exchange drops 1%. Elsewhere, in Asia Pacific, the Taiex index of Taipei is slightly up, while all the other stock markets are down: Kospi of Seoul -1%, Nikkei of Tokyo -0,5%.
Nasdaq futures are down 0,4%. The high tech index finished the session down 0,6%. Dow Jones -0,31%, S&P -0,35%.
After 126 years of history, General Electric (+2,6%) splits into three: health, energy and aviation. Thus ends the story of the most important conglomerate in history.
The most awaited data of the day is that on US inflation: an increase of 5,9% is expected in October, from +5,4% in September.
No shock to the bond market: the 1,46-year Treasury Note is at its lowest since September, at XNUMX%.
The dollar is back in strength after three sessions of decline against its major counterparts: euro-dollar slightly down to 1,158.
Natural gas prices collapse after the increase in Russian exports. WTI oil climbs for the fourth consecutive day and reaches 84,7 dollars a barrel, about a dollar below the long-term highs. The United States has said that a communication on the possibility of a release of some strategic stockpiles is not forthcoming.
ECB, ALARM ABOUT THE DESIRE FOR BRICKS IN NORTHERN EUROPE
Contrasted trend yesterday on the European markets in the face of a situation that on the side of the pandemic leans towards bad weather. Among the effects of the season of stimuli, writes the Economic Bulletin of the ECB, there is the sharp increase in the propensity to purchase real estate by wealthier families (44% of the 20% of the richest Europeans contemplate purchases), but this in the eyes of Isabel Schnabel, a German member of the Central Bank, is the alarm bell of a possible surge in house prices. The inflation alarm also resounds in the words of the Dutchman Knot, who, while sharing the idea that the growth of inflation is "temporary", invites us to raise our guard.
Christine Lagarde herself preaches caution for banks, once the acute phase of the pandemic has passed. According to the president, “now we need to address the long-term consequences on asset quality. The full impact will only gradually become visible, which poses challenges to credit risk management.” In this context, however, the lists assume a waiting position, while the euro yields some positions against the dollar, still close to 1,16.
SPREAD STABLE, BTP FUTURA RAISES A BILLION
Bond yields fell at the close: the 0,85-year bond dropped to 033%, a new low since mid-October. The spread against the Bund, down to -113%, remains around XNUMX points.
The placement of the 12-year Btp Futura continues, which at the end of the second day of the offer raised 1,009 billion euros, which added to the 958 million of the first day bring the provisional total to 1,967 billion.
The mid-month auction round kicks off today: the annual Bot auction is expected, with yields expected to fall. On the gray market, the November 2022 voucher rate is around -0,540%, to be compared with the -0,474% in mid-October.
Lastly, the ECB announced that it made purchases worth €15,62 billion over the past week as part of its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP). The figure is up sharply compared to the 8,2 billion of the previous week. On the other hand, purchases in the context of Qe are slowing down.
MILAN -0,97%, THE RECOVERY SPEEDS UP
Milan closes in the black jersey, -0,97%, 27.521 points, in a European context without a precise direction.
Good news is coming from the economy of the Bel Paese. Italy will recover pre-Covid GDP levels "probably or almost certainly" in the first quarter of 2022. This was stated by the Minister of Economy, Daniele Franco, at the end of the Ecofin meeting. Franco recalled that previously he had expected the pre-Covid GDP to be reached in the second or third quarter. Inflation is also under control. “In Italy – says Franco – the dynamics of inflation are significantly lower: we will see how temporary this is but it has been dragging on for some time and this helps us recover some competitiveness”.
THE ZEW IMPROVES, BUT GERMANY SLOWS DOWN
Frankfurt closed slightly down (-0,02%), against uncertain economic data. The Zew index on the German economy jumped to 31,7 points in November, compared to the previous 22,3 and forecasts of 20,0 points. But the index on German economic conditions stood at 12,5 points, worse than the previous figure at 21,6 and against estimates at 18,30.
Reuters reports that the German government's economic advisors are cutting their growth estimates for the current year: the update from the wise men's committee now says +2,7% in 2021, from +3,1% estimated in March. In September, Germany's exports fell by 0,7%, worse than expected.
Germany's trade balance in September recorded growth to 16,2 billion, better than estimates (16 billion).
NISSAN MAKES RENAULT FLY. CARREFOUR, DIGITAL TURNING POINT
Paris and Madrid are flat, while Amsterdam loses 0,3% and London scores -0,36%. Fly Renault (+3,79%): the subsidiary Nissan (controlled by the Regie at 43,4%) will contribute 157 million euros to the results of the third quarter.
Carrefour (+2,26%) has announced massive investments (up to 10 billion euros by 2026) to become a protagonist in online sales. An agreement with Meta (formerly Facebook) was also announced in this light.
CHINA ALARM: GOLDMAN SINKS MONCLER
The Goldman Sachs luxury report sank Moncler (-3,14%), downgraded to sell from neutral even with a target price of 61 euros from the previous 60,5. What worries analysts are the restrictions introduced by the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, on the tax on the rich and on common prosperity. Despite the fourth quarter of the year, up to now, has recorded good performances, the investment bank sees a deterioration of the most important luxury market.
FERRAGAMO: “GOOD” THE OCTOBER ISSUE
On the other hand, Tod's wakes up (+4,01%). Salvatore Ferragamo +0,96%. Vice President Michele Norsa defined the consensus estimates as "reasonable" and October's performance as "good". Marco Gobbetti will assume the position of CEO at the beginning of 2022. Safilo also rises (+3,6%).
UNICREDIT LEAVES TURKEY, POP SONDRIO IN RED
Among the banks, Unicredit changed course in the afternoon (-0,84%), which burned the rise in the morning after the announcement of the divestment of the entire remaining stake in Turkey's Yapi Kredi. The transaction will generate a negative impact on the income statement of around 1,6 billion, but the effect on capital is moderately positive. “In view of the new business plan which will be presented on 9 December, the operation is consistent with the strategy of simplifying the group structure and optimizing the allocation of capital”, underlines Equita. HSBC has raised the recommendation on the institute in Piazza Gae Aulenti to "buy" with a target of 14,2 from 13 euros.
Poor performance by Popolare di Sondrio, which lost 3,71% on the day of the results for the nine months and despite the more than tripled profit. Both Banco Bpm (-1,97%) and Bper (-0,29%) are in negative territory. HSBC has revised upwards the targets for both securities, to €3,15 and €2,8 respectively. Benefit taken on Fineco (-1,82%) after the accounts.
In the utility sector, Enel worsened, down by 1,4%. A2A also down (-1,28%), Hera and Terna more stable.
INTERPUMP SHINES, BREMBO SWINGS
Purchases on industrials, with Interpump (+1,4%) the most popular, followed by Cnh Industrial (+1,38%) and Leonardo (+0,55%). In the red Brembo (-2,21%).
EQUITA PROMOTES FIERA MILANO, THUMP OF MAIRE
Maire Tecnimont plummeted (-6,28%), affected by the performance of some institutional investors. WeBuild also falls (-4%) after the extension on the eve.
Fiera Milano +1,10% after the results. Equita raises the target price on the stock to 4,10 euro from the previous 3,60 euro.
Progress on the EGM Digital Value (+2,23%). Cfo Sim raised the target price to 122 euros from 115 euros, confirming the buy rating, after the acquisition of 51% of TT Tecnosistemi. NB Aurora participates in the capital increase of Blue Vet, which aims to build a national network of veterinary facilities of excellence.
