They hold up quite well i big investors of the real estate sector also in the first quarter of this year, despite an uncertain macroeconomic scenario and interest rates that have so far risen. The prospects for a reduction in inflation lead us to estimate a recovery in capital market investments, according to a study by Gabetti.
In the first quarter of 2023 the capital markets investments, interested by large clients such as Sgr-funds, credit institutes, pension funds, recorded just under 1 billion euro of capital market investments in Italy (967 million), a decreasing volume if compared with the same quarter of 2022 when they amounted to 3,3 billion and compared to the historical series of the last 10 years, but which does not differ much from the medium of 1,5 billion euros of the last 5 years, if you exclude 2022 which has seen a powerful post-covid rebound.
Italian investors are once again the main players
From a geographical point of view, the largest volume of investments was made in Northern Italy (76%), followed by the Center with 18% and the South with 6%.
Capitals for the first time in a long time come back more actively from Italian investors (53%). The capitals esteri, mainly British, American and French, remain mainly focused on the living and hotel product.
The picture of the sector: the reversal of the inflationary trend suggests an improvement
For investments capital markets 2022 ended in Italy as one of the best years, above all thanks to the rebound effect of real estate investment activity after the pandemic period.
Ma during 2022, the economic situation was marked by a sudden increase in inflation which, in December of last year, reached 11,9%, and by a consequent increase in ECB interest rates which, from July 2022 to March 2023, saw an increase of 3,5 points.
In this scenario many institutional investors, especially foreign ones, have preferred since last October to sit back and wait for a clearer picture of the evolution of interest rates and, in parallel, del repricing of asset classes. Thus, the end of the last quarter of last year had already heralded a first sign of a slowdown in the closure of corporate operations, says Gabetti. Inflation down, which went from 11,9% (December 2022) to 7,7% (March 2023) with an estimated forecast of around 5-6% at the end of the current year, and 3% in 2024, suggests a less restrictive stance by the ECB and, therefore, a return to the normalization of interest rates and capital market investments, says the study.
The logistics and living sectors are the driving force. The offices slow down
The sectors that saw the best performance were logistics and living, which respectively represent 28% and 25% of the total invested.
The sector of the logistics (267 million), which sees most of the volumes concentrated in northern Italy, is developing a growing interest in the context in which it is located, adopting strategies aimed at environmental sustainability: in fact, there are more and more new projects involving the construction of buildings with LEED or BREEAM certification.
In the sector of living (237 million) the segment that weighed the most was the student housing following two operations located in Milan and Bologna, both university cities, in which there is a strong demand for bed places to the detriment of the current supply which is not yet adequate. Stands up, even if no longer on the podium, the office sector (174 million) recording 18% of the total volume.
From the point of view of the absorbed contracts (take up) the Milan and Rome markets recorded a total of 183.000 m14, a volume up by +2022% if compared with the same quarter of 93.000. In particular, the greatest growth is seen in Rome, with an absorption of office space equal to 50.000 sq m, almost doubled compared to the same period last year, following a significant pre-let of approximately 90.000 sq m in the EUR area. As regards Milan, it recorded a take-up of 18 mXNUMX, down by XNUMX%, but with an increasing number of operations.
Sector follows hospitality (129 million) with 13% of the total volume concentrated between northern and central Italy, with the largest number of transactions recorded in Tuscany.
Important transactions were then recorded in the sector healthcare (77 million, 8% of the total invested) relating to hospitals, clinics and nursing homes, above all in Piedmont.
The compartment mixed use and alternatives (61 million) accounted for 7% of the total invested, while the sector retail (22 million) only 2% with investments concentrated in the two main markets of Milan and Rome.
