Stock exchanges remain revved up, notwithstanding uncertainty about the outcome of the American vote and the risk of a long trail of disputes between President Donald Trump and challenger Joe Biden. European lists close another session in rally e Wall Street gallops, riding the Nasdaq, which grows by 5%. The recovery also continues Petroleum (Brent +3,25%, 41 dollars a barrel; Wti +3,16% 38,85 dollars), while theeuro dollar, with the exchange rate hovering around 1,177.
Business Square momentum exceeds 19 points and rises by 1,96% to 19.358, in line with Frankfurt +1,95%, but further back than Paris +2,44%. Stay in line instead Madrid + 0,47%.
The start of the day had been volatile, but the upward opening of the New York Stock Exchange and the subsequent affirmation of risk appetite consolidated the sentiment of European stock markets. For now, the electoral results belie the forecasts of a clear victory for Biden and an affirmation of the Democrats in the Senate, but companies are divided between those in favor of the policy of one or the other president, while investors find evident in today's picture hints of optimism. In the betting world, Britain's Smarkets sees Trump leading by 55%, up from 39% when the polls opened. The odds of a Trump victory hit 80% this morning. However, the outgoing president writes in his latest Tweet that his advantage in some key states would have "disappeared in the night" and this seems to be the twitter of those who know that he is losing.
From a macroeconomic point of view, the Eurozone shows signs of stagnation in the fourth quarter, but lower than expected: the PMI index of composite production, compiled by IHS Markit, stands at 50 (compared to 50,4 in September) and that services at 46,9 (against 48 in September). In the US, on the other hand, private sector jobs increased by 365.000 in October. The Adp estimate is calculated taking into account only the private sector and excluding the government sector. The figure clearly disappoints the estimates of economists who expected a growth in jobs of 738.000 units. Federal Reserve Policy Committee will have food for thought at November's two-day meeting beginning today; tomorrow, at the end, the president Jerome Powell, in a press conference, should illustrate the new policy on interest rates.
To push purchases, in Piazza Affari there are also some better-than-expected quarterly reports. It is the case of Intesa Sanpaolo, which gains 3,71% and leads the charge of financial stocks, while CEO Carlo Messina is convinced that his bank is one "of the best positioned to be able to resume the distribution of dividends once it has received authorization from the ECB" . For the 2020 the group expects "that net income could be no less than around 3 billion in and no less than around 3,5 billion in 2021, assuming a cost of risk potentially up to around 90 basis points for 2020 and up to around 70 cents of a point for 2021”. Including from 2022, “a net profit of no less than 5 billion is expected and the continuation of a strategy focused on remuneration for shareholders and on maintaining solid capital ratios'. Intesa will therefore pay "an amount of cash dividends corresponding to a payout ratio equal to 75% of the net result for the 2020 financial year and 70% for the 2021 financial year, subject to the indications that will be provided by the ECB regarding the distribution of dividends after January 2021, 2019". The intention to pay the dividend set aside for the XNUMX financial year with a cash distribution of the reserves has also been confirmed.
Bene Unicredit, +2,13%, which will present the quarterly results tomorrow morning. In the meantime, the Fitch agency confirmed the bank's equity soundness rating, set at “BBB-”. It dates back MPS , +1,37%, on M&A assumptions.
It is at the top of the list nexi, +6,66% which was strong for the second day in a row, after Monday's losses following the news of the purchase of the Danish Nest. For the CEO Paolo Bertoluzzo "if the mergers, which we have announced and signed for now, were to be completed, we would reach an investment capacity of 300 million a year and this would open up opportunities for greater innovation, security and quality for the banks and their clients. The skills and investments that we would have at our disposal, together with Sia and Nets, would be extraordinary in our sector at a European level but also on a wider scale”.
Seat to be framed for Diasorin + 3,79% Italgas + 3,59% Post + 3,15% A2a + 3,03%.
Profit-taking penalizes Pirelli -4,01%; Saipem -1,37% Atlantia -0,49%. The construction sector suffers, Buzzi -2,58% Astaldi -6,5%, with the US vote pending and waiting times for investments in the sector lengthening.
On the secondary it still drops spread between ten-year Italian and German: 130 basis points (-1,2%), with the rate of the BTP in an all-time low area of +0,66%. However, central banks are not calm: for adviser Isabel Schnabel, the ECB should not take calm on the bond market for granted while the economy of the eurozone affected by the pandemic turns for the worse and requires new monetary stimulus.
The governor of the Bank of Italy Ignazio Visco, on the other hand warns: “As far as the public accounts are concerned, in the medium term, economic policy action can only set itself the objective of achieving a progressive rebalancing. This is especially true for those countries which, like Italy, had a high public debt even before the pandemic".
