The ballot in Georgia and the lockdowns in Europe still hold the court on the lists and keep the rate of restlessness high. However, a positive boost comes from oil purchases and sector stocks in the perspective that OPEC+ has found a mediation for an unchanged production in February compared to January levels and an increase of 500 barrels per day starting in March.
In this context, the European markets close in contrast: Milan loses 0,52%, at 22.200 points; Frankfurt -0,55%; Paris -0,44%; Madrid -0,05%. London bucked the trend, +0,64%, thanks to the oil majors and a £4,6 billion support package for businesses to ease the recession induced by the third phase of the lockdown due to the explosion of Covid-19 infections . Today the record is 60 new positives in one day.
Volatility also lives on Wall Street, which started down and then moved up, then contrasted and now back in the green. Investors' attention is directed to Georgia where the game for control of the Senate is being played. At the moment the Republicans already have 50 out of 100 parliamentarians, the Democrats 48 and up for grabs are the last two seats that could offer Biden full support (with the extra vote of the president of the upper house) or two divided chambers. The latter is probably the preferable scenario for the markets.
On the other hand, in the event that the Democrats also win the Senate, US analysts make two hypotheses for the stock market: a robust correction, between 6 and 10%, due to the fact that the president-elect would be facilitated in applying his legislative agenda and prospectively, a welcome increase in fiscal stimulus may be accompanied by an unwelcome increase in taxes; or there may be an important rotation of purchases of securities favored by Biden's program, in sectors such as alternative energy to the detriment of hi-tech.
As regards today's share performance, we note the rally in shares of China Telecom, China Unicom and China Mobile, after the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) decided to keep the three Chinese companies on the list. A few days ago the NYSE had instead announced the delisting in application of an executive order signed by President Donald Trump to counter the companies controlled by the celestial empire, then changed its mind "in the light of further consultations with the regulatory authorities".
In the foreign exchange market, the dollar is still losing ground against a basket of currencies after China raised the official exchange rate of the yuan to the highest level since 2005, boosting demand for other currencies. The euro appreciates slightly, but remains below 1,23. The euro-pound exchange rate is flat.
Among the commodities, gold is taking a break for reflection, while oil celebrates the rumors about the possible compromise within OPEC+. After yesterday's clash, with Russia asking for an immediate increase in production and Saudi Arabia against it, the midpoint would have been found in the hypothesis of providing for the increase in the month of March, even if the agreement still needs to be sanctioned definitively. Brent, March 2021, is trading up 3,5% to 52,88 dollars a barrel.
The effects are also being felt in Piazza Affari where Saipem +4,13% leads the blue chip ranking. Brilliant Eni with a daily increase of 3,71%. Reuters, quoting two sources close to the situation, also confirmed MF's indiscretion, according to which the major has frozen the sale of Australian assets valued at about 1 billion dollars, as it believes that conditions are not favourable. In the Tenaris sector +3,58%. Among the industrialists, Leonardo rebounds +2,47%. Banks in no particular order: Bper positive +0,82%, Intesa down -1,09% and Unicredit -1,09%. Outside the main basket, purchases reward Mps, +6,09%, after the indiscretions of the Messenger.
According to the Roman newspaper, a project to separate MPS assets such as branches and historic headquarters is being studied, creating what has been defined as a 'mini-MPS', thus allowing the preservation of the brand in the event of a merger with Unicredit. This would be a hypothesis devised to respond to local political institutions, continues Il Messaggero, protagonists of ever-increasing requests for guarantees for the territory and occupation of the operation with the Milanese bank. In addition to making the merger easier, according to the newspaper this hypothesis would allow MPS to reach an agreement to neutralize the 3,8 billion euro liability action brought against the Sienese bank.
In evidence Fincantieri +1,26%, after Il Sole 24 Ore reported the imminent finalization of a 2,3 billion euro contract with the Navy for the construction of four submarines.
On the Ftse Mib, Moncler -2,76% recorded the greatest decreases; Nexi -2,6%; Campari -2,69%; Hera -2,56%. Among the worst are Pirelli, -1,63%, which suffers from the rejection of JP Morgan after the relegation of the title to 'underweight' from 'neutral', with a target price of 4 euros from 4,1 euros.
There was little movement for the secondary, with the spread falling to 110 basis points (-1,36%) and the BTP rate at +0,52%.
Meanwhile, the year is off to a good start for bonds issued by the Italian Treasury. The MEF has successfully closed an operation which provides for the placement of a new 15-year BTP for 10 billion euros. Requests from institutional investors (to whom the issue was addressed, made through a syndicate of banks) amounted to over 105 billion, close to the absolute record recorded in the auction for the ten-year anniversary in June (108 billion, against an offer of 14 billion).
