Draw from the result of first round of French elections clear and peremptory indications for what will happen in Italy when the general elections take place in a year it is certainly a gamble. For two reasons. The first is that the real results of the transalpine vote will only be seen on May 6th, given that the outcome of the ballot is extremely uncertain, even if Hollande starts in the lead. However, the socialist candidate has only a point and a half advantage and he too will have to deal with the almost 20% put together by Marine La Pen's far right. The second reason is that, as Emma Bonino observed, in politics a year "is a biblical time".
If this is the starting point, it is understandable that it should also be controlled the satisfaction expressed by the leader of the Democratic Party, Pierluigi Bersani, who, however, in perfect harmony with the candidate of the French socialists, underlined that now "Europe can change". Despite Bersani's satisfied caution, it can nonetheless be observed that for the Pd it is a good sign that Hollande has managed to contain the result of the more radical left (Mélénchon has just exceeded 10%) and at the same time has not suffered any more both the possible competition of the centrist candidate Bayrou below 10% and previous more significant performances.
Unlike us, where, after the political default of the Berlusconi government, the center is a very crowded political place, in France, most of the moderate electorate recognizes themselves in Sarkozy, but also in Hollande, who, despite having already received support for the second round of the radical and ecological left, is credited by the polls as being able to obtain significant support even in the Bayrou electorate.
If this scheme were to reappear in Italy, it would mean that it would not be impossible for Bersani to hold together an alliance with Sel, perhaps with Di Pietro and, at the same time, dialogue with the center of Casini.
If Bersani welcomed the advantage of the socialists in the first round with satisfied prudence, still the prime minister, Mario Monti, appears more cautious, which would have limited itself to letting it pass through that the important thing is that both Hollande and Sarkozy now focus on growth. For heaven's sake, from a government that must count on everyone's support, caution is a must. Certainly however, if Hollande wins in the next round, the weight of Bersani's and the Pd's actions vis-à-vis the Executive will increase. And Monti will have to take this into account.
If one then looks to the right of the political alignments, the differences between Italy and France are even more significant. Self in fact in France there are two right-wingers, the republican one of Sarkozy and the ultra-nationalist and xenophobic one of the National Front, in Italy until recently the space was firmly occupied by the alliance between Berlusconi and Bossi, in which the heirs of our neo-fascism have recognized and continue to recognize themselves (excluding Fini and the Finians who have landed in centrist positions). With the exception of Storace's right, who, despite being allied with Berlusconi, Marine Le Pen still allowed a visit of warmth and support.
Then Berlusconi's party weighs a reasonable antipathy towards the Merkel-Sarkozy duo, whose smiles and sarcasm have not been forgotten about the sometimes "burlesque" attitudes of the former prime minister. All while another historical exponent of the Italian centre-right, the former Economy Minister Giulio Tremonti, did not hesitate in a television interview to express words of appreciation for Hollande's programme, to which he would have given his vote if he had been an elector in France.
Finally, a more general consideration. The French vote demonstrates that even in Europe bipolarity and bipartisanship are not taken for granted. Of course, in France the double round allows for a final sprint between two competitors. But yesterday's first round showed that there were at least five strong candidates, representing their own parties or groupings: three (Hollande, Sarkozy, and Le Pen) over or close to 20%; two (Mélénchon and Bayrou) around 10%. Parties in Europe still matter.
