The army with Maduro and the Constitution with Guaidò. After the self-proclamation of the democratic opposition leader Juan Guaido to lead the country, Venezuela is divided in two and is increasingly embroiled in a civil war that causes deaths and injuries. President Nicolas Maduro, supported by the army, ridicules the scope of Guaidò's revolt ("It's a farce") but is increasingly alone: at home and abroad. At home because people are fed up with the abolition of constitutional and democratic rights but above all with the misery in a country rich in oil that forces thousands and thousands of its citizens to try to feed themselves and save themselves in America's closest countries Latin.
But Maduro is also more alone on the international level: he has Putin's Russia, Xi's China, Erdogan's Turkey, Assad's Syria on his side but the whole West - Trump in the lead - can't wait for Maduro to fall and its unsustainable dictatorial regime. The isolation that Maduro experiences in Latin America is also very important because all the main countries – from Brazil to Argentina – are, beyond the diversity of their regimes, on the side of the Venezuelan opposition and against Maduro. The exception, of course, is Cuba, which has always been with Chavez and his followers.
The US is on Guaidò's side even if the strategy for the future is not clear and Europe is against Maduro, from Merkel's Germany to Macron's France and Sanchez's Spain. Italy wavers between the Third Worldist thrusts of the Five Stars and the difficulty of the League in reconciling the Trumpist vocation with loyalty to Putin, who has always supported Maduro in exchange for oil. Yesterday, however, the leader of the League, Salvini spoke out against the Caracas regime: "I am with the Venezuelan people and against regimes such as Maduro's, based on violence, fear and hunger: the sooner it falls, the better"
The crisis in Venezuela, which alarms the international community, is in full evolution and the next few days will be decisive. Maduro swears that he will never give up the scepter of command and the army is his shield but, so far, the armed forces have not dared to touch Guaidò and the judiciary has not moved despite the Attorney General being a Chavista exponent. What is especially striking is the fact that the latest popular demonstration promoted a few days ago by Maduro, with his speech from the balcony of the presidential palace in Miraflores as all dictators use, was much less attended than usual, despite the intimidation of the regime.
The violent street clashes have already caused 26 deaths, hundreds of injuries and 360 arrests. Consensus for Guaidò is growing in working-class neighborhoods but so far there is no clear plan to manage the democratic transition and the risk of an increasingly bitter civil war is around the corner. The opposition leader has offered Maduro an amnesty in exchange for his resignation but for now the dictator is not giving up.
