Omicron still bites, war shivers blow from the East, the Fed scares. But a light suddenly turns on in the financial markets: the travel and tourism sector runs on the price lists, with the Stoxx Leisure&Travel index up 3,8% driven by airlines: Lufthansa + 6% Tui + 5% IAG (the new name of British Airways) +5%, Ryanair +4%. Even Italy, awaiting news on Ita Airways, participates in the awakening: Rest, a company closely linked to the fortunes of travel and airports in particular, rose by a generous 4%.
Of course, a single session does not make spring, especially after the suffering inflicted by movement restrictions on a key sector for the global economy, which in 2019 ensured 10,6% of jobs but which it burned through 62 million paychecks last year, resulting in a $4,5 trillion drop in global GDP. A massacre that has hit infrastructure, as demonstrated by the drop in traffic at the airports of the Bel Paese, which closed 2021 with 80,7 million passengers and a contraction of 58,2% on 2019, the last year not affected by the pandemic , when the number of travelers had exceeded 193 million. A final balance up by 52,4% on 2020 but still marked by a profound crisis, with 113 million passengers lost compared to 2019.
In short, there is no need to be happy. But for financial markets, which live on expectations, the current depressed level of assets represents above all a good buying opportunity, precious commodity in times of overvaluation of price lists. A light turned on this morning Josefz Varady, the CEO of Wizz Air, the low-cost airline that tried in vain to buy Easy Jet. The accounts, he told the shareholders meeting in Budapest, “show a negative end of the year in 2021 that dashed hopes of recovery. But this pushes us to accelerate the recovery, perhaps with a strong discount campaign to get the use of the fleet (170 aircraft), strengthened in recent months, off the ground. I expect it to be sold out next summer".
An incurable optimist? True, but this is the sentiment of a large part of Europeans who can't wait to travel again, stressed out by long-distance interviews, more than ever eager to frequent hotels and resorts again. This is confirmed by the report of the World Travel & Tourism Council, which leaves no room for doubt: the Intra-European travel bookings for Easter this year jumped by 250% compared to 2021, while those for next summer are already +80% compared to the same period last year. Compared to the pre-pandemic period, bookings for Easter are 39% lower, while those for the summer are 45% lower, also compared to 2019. “Omicron blocked travel in early 2021, but as soon as widespread feeling that the peak of the infection was near and that the symptoms of the disease were weaker, bookings are back to running”, said the president of WTCC, Julia Simpson. Starting from Spain (+320%) and from Turkey that, accomplice the thrilling devaluation of the lira, promises to be the low cost attraction of the summer.
The picture seems to be made to encourage a quick solution for Ita Airways, the former Alitalia that Alfredo Altavilla, the CEO chosen by Mario Draghi, could marry as early as the next few days, taking advantage of the distraction of politicians hostile to any solution that distances the company from the halls of power. But barring last-minute hitches, the negotiation with Lufthansa and the MSC by Francesco Aponte from Salerno (a company that flies the Swiss flag) seems destined for success.
In that case, the recovery of Made in Italy tourism will be able to count on a world-class player, with a strong XNUMX employees engaged in cargo transport but also with some very important tourism brands such as MSC Cruises and Grandi Navi Veloci. A signal on the road to the concentration of a key industry for the restart of the country.
