The red alert on the Turkish lira is still in effect, but the markets seem capable of mastering the crisis. The Turkish lira was little moved this morning, at 6,90 against the dollar, yesterday it closed down by 7%. The euro-dollar exchange rate also showed little movement, at 1,141, yesterday dropping to a 13-month low at 1,1360.
The most comforting signals come from the Asian Stock Exchanges, which fell sharply yesterday. Tokyo is starting to close up 1,8%. The yen weakens against the dollar to 110,8. Among the rising stock markets, we find Seoul (+0,7%) and Mumbai (+0,3%). On the other hand, the Chinese Stock Exchanges fell: Hong Kong -0,7%, CSI 300 index of the Shanghai and Shenzhen lists -0,8%. In this case, however, the new rules on suspensions matter more than the Turkey effect.
SAUDI CAPITALS FOR TESLA DELISTING
Wall Street also contained the damage: Dow Jones -0,5%, S&P 500 -0,40%, Nasdaq -0,25%. Amazon and Apple have set new records. More than Turkey, the market seems interested in the moves of Elon Musk who yesterday, under pressure from the SEC's rigging investigations, specified the terms of Tesla's delisting (+0,26%). The operation will be made possible, he explained, by the capital of the Saudi sovereign wealth fund interested in the electric car for the post-oil period. Musk, however, is convinced that at least two thirds of the shareholders will not sell.
BTP, THE IMAGINARY PLOT
Ma tensions over Türkiye they are more the symptom than the cause of the worries of the markets, on the eve of a season that promises to be very hot. From this point of view, the signs are not lacking.
The increase in the spread between the Btp and the Bund, which has risen above 280, anticipates the effects of a rejection of the financial maneuver by the rating agencies (Fitch will pronounce on August 31st, Moody's on September 7th). A conspiracy? No, the expected outcome of new expenses (see Alitalia), dangerous postponements (Ilva) and, more generally, of an openly anti-euro strategy.
WEAK GOLD DUE TO THE FED'S CHOICE, BITCOIN BELOW 6 THOUSAND
On a global level, according to John Authers, the constant descent of gold, which has slipped to its lowest level since January 2017 below $1.200, should be kept an eye on. Why, asks the columnist, does the yellow metal no longer function as a safe haven in times of crisis? Because, is the answer, “gold functions as a signal of the US central bank's attitudes. If investors believe the Fed tends to favor credit and the return of inflation they will buy gold. Otherwise, as is the case today, they will bet on the dollar”. And emerging currencies, not just the Turkish lira, will tend to fall like skittles. Together with bitcoin, which plunged yesterday below $6.000, a third of January's prices.
A difficult scenario for the stock markets and for oil consumption, which is declining in the countries most at risk.
Neglected Brent this morning, at 72,8 dollars. At Piazza Affari Eni unchanged, Saipem +0,7%.
MILAN FLUCKS AROUND AN ALTITUDE OF 21 THOUSAND
Weak session for the main European stock exchanges which, however, partially recovered ground in the afternoon thanks to the opening above parity on Wall Street, where – more than the Turkish crisis – the possible delisting of Tesla holds bank. The euro, which fell sharply in the morning against both the dollar and the yen and the Swiss franc, recovered positions in the afternoon.
Piazza Affari -0,58% stemmed the losses of the first part of the session but closed below the psychological threshold of 21 points, at 20.969. 21.000 points is a watershed in technical analysis.
BAYER'S FALL WEIGHTS ON FRANKFURT
Slightly lower than the losses of Frankfurt -0,53% on which it however weighed the blow to Bayer: -10,84% to 83,21 euros after the conviction, in the USA, of Monsanto (with which it has just completed the merger) sentenced for a millionaire compensation to a gardener who used glyphosate herbicides and fell ill with cancer.
The other price lists are also in red: Madrid -0,75%; London -0,33%; Zurich -0,32%. Paris resists (-0,04%) despite the crash of Air France (-4,11%).
ALL NON-PERFORMING BTPs: 30 YEARS AT 3,68%
In a climate of general aversion to risk in the wake of the speculative attack against the Turkish lira, Italy was once again particularly hit today due to fears about the budget law and the executive's economic policies, with the spread reaching trading above 280 basis points, the highest since the end of May.
Around 17,30, the yield differential between the BTP and the Bund on the 10-year segment widened to 278 basis points from 267 at the end of Friday's session, after a peak of 281 points since May 30, the height of the political crisis Italian.
The 3,09-year reference rate is worth 3,00% from 3,11% at Friday's close, after a maximum of 2%. The 1,30-year rate also rose sharply, trading at 1,18% at the close from XNUMX% at the final on Friday.
The longer stretch is particularly suffering: the 30-year BTP loses almost one and a half points with the rate at 3,68%.
The CDS on Italy rise to 255 points, from the 247 points of the last closing, approaching the peak of 267 reached on May 29th.
With today's reopening of the Bot's auction (passed deserted), the mid-month round of auctions has ended because the medium-long placement has been cancelled.
The market is already focused on appointments with rating agencies: on 31 August Fitch and 7 September Moody's, which currently has a negative rating watch, will express their opinion on the country's sovereign rating.
BORGHI (LEAGUE) ASKS DRAGONS TO REJECT THE SPREAD
The tensions on the spreads of some peripheral countries in Europe, Italy in the lead, can only be defused if the ECB decides to offer a guarantee to limit these fluctuations, otherwise "the euro will dismantle itself". This is the opinion of Claudio Borghi, economist of the League and president of the Budget Commission of the Chamber: "The situation cannot be resolved and is destined to explode," he said, commenting on the recent market movements. “Either the ECB guarantee will arrive or everything will be dismantled… I don't see any third way”. The ECB should declare that it will not tolerate spreads of more than 150 points between two eurozone countries”. In front of the market.
STILL UNDER PRESSURE UNICREDIT, MPS CRASHES
The banks are under pressure from the spread as well as from the Turkish rice.
The sector index lost more than 2%. Unicredit dropped another 2,58% after Friday's losses, even if the impact of a possible zeroing of the presence in the country (extreme and unlikely scenario according to JP Morgan) is, for analysts, entirely manageable.
At the bottom of the list are also Ubi (-2,89%) and Banco Bpm (-3,01%).
Monte Paschi lost 3,81% after updating the new lows from the listing to 2,192 euros.
FLY AZIMUT, COURTED BY MEDIOBANCA
Among the positive notes Azimut (+2,4%). There are rumors that the company is in the sights of Mediobanca intending to accelerate its growth in the managed sector.
Unipol also in cash (+2,2%), supported by the opinions of analysts on the accounts for the quarter.
The rest of the list hasn't changed much. The exception is Leonardo (-2,7%). According to rumors, he has little chance of winning the tender for trainer aircraft to be supplied to the United States Air Force.
ASTALDI PREXIPITA FROM THE BOSPHOROUS BRIDGE
Astaldi plummeted (-6,06%). As part of the capital increase operation, the company must sell 33% of the concessionaire that built the third bridge over the Bosphorus, an almost impossible undertaking in the current Turkish situation.
Strong decline also for Ovs (-6,11%).
