“We have good reasons to think about a recovery in inflation”. Thus Stanley Fischer, number two of the Fed, raised the prospect of a rise in US interest rates in Jackson Hole. In summary, the reasoning goes like this: contingent reasons (weak oil, dollar pushed up by the Chinese turbulence) keep prices low for now, despite the structural factors (labour markets, consumption, manufacturing industry performance) signaling a potential push up.
After these words, the markets expect that the Fed may abandon the hike at its meeting on September 16-17 but that the move will certainly be adopted at its October or December meeting. Much will depend on the labor market data to be released on Thursday 4 September.
MARKET MOVERS: ECB, G20
Silence, Mario Draghi speaks again. Thursday, at the end of the ECB meeting, there will be the awaited press conference of the president. Suspended, pending the elections of 20 September, the Greece dossier, the central bank focuses again on Qe. “We expect – is the judgment of Barclays – that the ECB will relaunch the will to maintain an expansive monetary policy Mario Draghi could announce the will to extend the purchases of securities beyond the date of September 2016”.
China, situation of the banking system and debt of emerging countries. The G20 which will meet over the weekend in Ankara will have to deal with this and many others, cornerstones of Turkey which is one of the protagonists of the current phase of financial, political and military turbulence.
IT HAPPENED YESTERDAY
The financial week, which began with the landslide in Shanghai, ended in positive ground in most markets after thrilling excursions.
In the United States, the S&P 500 index closed with a rise of 0,4% from Monday to Friday: this is the best result of the last month. The Dow Jones rises by 1,1%, the Nasdaq +2,6%. During August, so far, the US markets have experienced a decline of more than 4%.
In Milan, the Ftse Mib index closes the week with an increase of 1,1%. However, on the eve of the last session of the month, the balance for August is announced to be very negative -8,2%. Frankfurt +1,7% performed better than Milan during the week. Paris +1%, Madrid +0,8%. London +1%. The BTP market was stable: with the auctions at the end of August, the Treasury completed 72% of the offer envisaged for 2015.
SAIPEM
The best Italian blue chip was Saipem +13%, driven by the M&A echo in the oil equipment sector on Wall Street. September promises to be decisive for various reasons, starting with the publication of the new business plan developed by CEO Stefano Cao. The strengthening of the company's assets is strictly topical: before a probable capital increase, the hypothesis of a demerger is making its way, preliminary to a direct entry of Cdp, the controlling shareholder of Eni which in turn has the 43% of Saipem and, among your priorities, has that of deconsolidating the debt of the company (the sixth, by turnover, of the Italian industry).
Tenaris also stands out +5,3% which raises its head together with the price of oil after a terrible season. Trevi conference call today, participated by the Cdp, which has just archived a terrible semester.
LUXURY
The difficult season of luxury continues. Salvatore Ferragamo was awarded the black jersey of the week with a loss of 4,3%. The business houses have revised downwards the targets of the Florentine maison not so much in the light of the results for the first half-year, which is generally positive, but due to the prospect of a robust drop in demand in some key markets, first and foremost China.
BANKS
In great evidence among the Monte Paschi banks + 4,03%. Tomorrow Davide Usai, former director general of Unicef Italy, will take over Enrico Granata, in office since January 2014, as director general of the Foundation. "An enlargement of the trade union pact - he added - is possible and desirable".
But the sector's attention is focused on the cleanup operation, subsequent capital increase and entry on the Stock Exchange of Popolare di Vicenza and Veneto Banca. In particular, the Vicenza institute after announcing the loss of one billion and a capital increase of 1,5 billion which will probably coincide with the listing on Piazza Affari.
Also for Veneto Banca, which announced a loss of 213 million, an increase between 5 and 800 million is looming in addition to the transformation of Popolare into a joint stock company and entry to the Stock Exchange. This announces an intense autumn for the banking sector with the risk of overcrowding that could affect the timing of the M&A among the listed Popular companies that are starting the already announced M&A season.
LAMB STABLE
Exor. Net result more than tripled compared to the first six months of 2014, thanks to a 90,9 million euro better result from the investees and higher capital gains. The Nav increased to almost 12,9 billion.
Fiat Chrysler -2,5%. Sergio Marchionne CEO of Ferrari? The hypothesis has been circulating for some time and was relaunched yesterday by Bloomberg. So the recent reappointment of Amedeo Felisa, who succeeded Jean Todt in 2008, was not enough. Marchionne became chairman of Ferrari a year ago prompting Luca di Montezemolo out of office. On that occasion the manager of the Lingotto had reconfirmed Felisa in the position and so did the recent meeting of the board of directors. Felisa, 69 years old in October, will probably leave in the coming months due to having reached the age limit. And at that point the succession of Marchionne would start, thus bringing together the two positions of president and managing director. An increase in weight (if there was ever a need) of roles that would end up coinciding with the listing of the Cavallino on Wall Street expected between October and November.
Mediaset recovers +5,53%. Telecom Italia falls -2,05% on the eve of the "Brazilian" month. The country led by Roussef has to deal with the data on the economic slowdown: GDP collapsed by 1,9% in the second quarter of the year.
