The day began under the banner of caution, with the European stock exchanges just above parity, but ready to close the fifth consecutive session with – albeit fractional – increases. The closure is instead in the red, with the continental lists that in the afternoon join the negative sentiment of Wall Street and abandon themselves to sales. Weighting the markets is the belief that the Federal Reserve will accelerate its rate hike path. One more indication could arrive as early as this week, with the publication of December's US inflation data scheduled for January 12, but in the meantime it is a Goldman Sachs report that sets the pace. According to the US investment bank, this year the Fed will raise interest rates four times (in March, June, September and December) and not three times as planned last November. The forecasts on the budget reduction process have also been revised, which could start as early as July and no longer in December.
THE BOND
Concerns over an imminent Fed tightening send global bond yields soaring, with 10-year US Treasury rates up 25 basis points (+0,25%) since January 1. The spread between the BTP and the Bund closed slightly in another session of strong sales on all bonds in the Eurozone which, among other things, brought the yield of the German Bund within a hair's breadth of returning to positive after more than two years and half. At the end of the day, the differential was 138 basis points, a fractional decrease compared to the 139 basis points recorded at last Friday's closing. The yield on the Italian ten-year bond is instead at 1,35% from 1,32% on Friday.
“We expect several headwinds in the first quarter to create a difficult environment for sovereign spreads – reads the note from Goldman Sachs – given the reduced support of QE and the increase in issuance, we believe that the observed widening of the BTP-bund spread in the last week may extend”. “In addition to less favorable supply dynamics, political risk for BTPs is likely to increase until the first round of the Italian presidential elections on January 24,” adds GS, estimating an increase of up to 150 basis points for the yield differential between the Italian government bond with a ten-year maturity and the German counterpart.
WALL STREET IN FREE FALL
Heavy sitting for the American Stock Exchange with the S & P 500 (-1,4%) and Il Nasdaq (-1,75%) losing ground for the fourth consecutive session. Also in red Dow Jones (-1,2%). The stocks of mega caps active in the hi-tech sector, such as Meta (formerly Facebook), Amazon e A (Google), which lost between 2% and 4%. Bucking Zynga, which earns 45% after that Take-Two (-14%), video game manufacturing group, announced its purchase for $12,7 billion. Also noteworthy is the performance of Modern (+9,7%) which raised the forecasts for sales of the Covid-19 vaccine for 2022, bringing them from 17 to 18,5 billion dollars.
THE EUROPEAN EXCHANGES
In Europe it is Amsterdam wearing the black jersey, closing the day with a drop of 1,94%. Also in red Paris e Frankfurt, which lost 1,44% and 1,12% respectively. Half a point down Madrid, while outside the EU, London falls by 0,53%.
BUSINESS PLACE
Il Ftse Eb he tries to resist as best he can, but finally gives in to the general mood. At the end of the session, the drop was 0,96% and 27.353 points, despite the good indications received on the job market. In November 2021, according to Istat, the Italian unemployment rate dropped to 9,2% (-0,2 points) and to 28% among young people (-0,2%). in the same month, employment grew by 0,3%, while the employment rate rose to 58,9%. In November, Istat explains, “the growth in employment observed in the previous two months continued, recording an increase of almost 200 employed in three months; compared to January 2021, the increase is 700 employed and concerns both employee and self-employment. The employment rate is 2,1 percentage points higher.
EYES ON BPER, CARIGE AND LEONARDO
All eyes are on Piazza Affari Carige (+0,97%) pending the decision, scheduled for today, of the Interbank Fund on the proposals received from Bper (+0,3%), Crédit Agricole Italia and the Cerberus Fund. The Emilian bank, according to rumors, would have improved the offer previously presented, reducing the amount of the recapitalization to 600-700 million for Fitd and increasing the price of the takeover bid.
On the main list it is highlighted Leonardo (+1,86%), following the Italian government's decision to put 2 billion euros on the plate for the Tempest programme, the new fighter-bomber launched in 2018 by Italy, the United Kingdom and Sweden. Among the best titles too Pirelli (+ 1,46%), Poste Italiane (+ 0,95%) and Banca Mediolanum (+0,93%). In December, the institute led by Massimo Doris recorded net inflows of 1,67 billion (historic record for the month) bringing the annual total to 9,18 billion, up 19% on 2020.
Outside the Ftse Mib, the performance of BuildingAcrobatics (+3,5%), which closed 2021 with an increase in contracts of 186,7% to 121 million euros, against 42,2 million the previous year. “The numbers clearly show how our business model is characterized by the ability to produce value in the territories in which it operates,” said CEO Riccardo Iovino.
THE MAJOR DISCOUNTS
In Milan the worst title is Nexi (-4,77%), while the rotation on technological ballast stm, which dropped 4,53% after last week's increases. In deep red too Amplifon (-4,41%), Diasorin (-4,33%) And Interpump (3,96%). Negative the titles of the Agnelli galaxy: Exor (2,84%), Cnh (-1,93%), Ferrari (-1,82%). The Maranello house presented today the new internal structure and new managers called by the CEO to manage the challenges of a growing global market.
THE OTHER MARKETS
In terms of exchange rates, the dollar strengthened to 1,132 per euro, against 1,1349 at Friday's close. Oil moved little, with the price of Brent dropping half a percentage point to 81,34 dollars a barrel.
