The first purchases of Quantitative easing they will start next Monday. But, as he said yesterday Mario Draghi at the press conference, “we have already seen a fair number of positive effects after the announcement of the shift towards a more expansionary monetary policy”. Starting from the improvement in growth estimates for the Eurozone (from +1% to +1,5% for this year, from +1,6 to +1,9% for 2016 and +2,1% in 2017) . And the markets have reacted enthusiastically.
1) The euro fell, reaching a new low for over 11 years against the dollar, at 1,1007, after Draghi reiterated the possibility of continuing with the purchases if necessary beyond September 2016.
2) All stock exchanges closed with a plus sign. In Milan, the FtseMib index rose by 1,22% to 22.400 points. The other eurozone stock markets are also in positive territory. Frankfurt advances by +1%, the Parisian Cac-40 +0,94%, Madrid +0,66%. London also marks +0,61%.
3) The spread between 96-year BTPs and Bunds reached its lowest in the session, narrowing to 102 basis points from 2010 basis points at yesterday's close, returning to the minimum since May 1,33 already marked on Monday. The Italian 1,394-year rate falls to XNUMX% from XNUMX% yesterday evening.
4) As far as QE methods are concerned, purchases - 60 billion euros a month, from two to thirty years, including covered bonds and securitizations - may include securities with a negative rate but not lower than that of extraordinary deposits, currently equal to -0,2%. Thus, for now, German 2-year bonds are excluded but, in the future, the ban will be extended to other issues of core countries to the full advantage of the "peripheral", including Italy.
TOKYO AT HIGHEST, WALL STREET UP' WAITING FOR EMPLOYMENT DATA
The super Mario effect was also felt outside of Europe. The Tokyo Stock Exchange closes the week with an increase of more than 1% after reaching 18.941, one step away from 19, never touched since April 2000. The New York stock exchanges, after two negative sessions, closed in positive ground despite the dollar rally: the Dow Jones index rose by 0,21%, S&P 500 +0,1%, Nasdaq +0,32%. The anticipation is rising for the presentation of the Apple iWatch, scheduled for Monday.
The market's attention is focused on payrolls: given the bad weather raging on the East coast, operators forecast a lower figure than the official forecasts (235.000 new jobs). A data equal to or higher could fuel further interest rate hike expectations, and give further support to the rise of the dollar. ,
THE BULL WEARS MONCLER (AND SOCKS TOD'S)
Luxury parades on the virtual catwalk of Piazza Affari, electrified by the prospect of a recovery in consumption and the fall of the euro, which opens the doors wide to an increase in buyers from the dollar area. Moncler flies up 10% after 2014 results clearly better than expected. In 2014 revenues increased by 20% year on year to 694,2 million euros (+21% at constant exchange rates). In the fourth quarter, like-for-like sales grew by 9%, with a strong acceleration in December. The gross operating margin (adjusted Ebitda) rose in the year to 206,6 million from the previous 191,7 million, with an incidence on revenues of 33,5%.
Profit rose 71% to 130,3 million. Ubs confirmed the Buy, raising the target price to 16 euros from 15 euros. JP Morgan raised the target price on the stock to 16,5 euros from 15,5 euros, confirming the overweight recommendation. Equita Sim did the same (target price at €17 from €16,2, buy rating confirmed) and Mediobanca Securities (target price at €18 from €16,2, outperform confirmed).
Tamburi, the investment company that indirectly owns 4,5% of Moncler, also rose. However, the record day of Made in Italy involved the other brands. Ferragamo rises by 1,6%, Yoox confirms its +2,2%. Luxottica +2,4%. Also noteworthy is Safilo, which rose by 2% after announcing an agreement to produce eyewear under license from Givenchy. Tod's scores an increase of 6%. Geox also did very well, +4,2% at its highest level since April after the results. Among the stocks most interested in the consumption trend is Autogrill +4,3%. Wdf +1,32% to 10,74 euros. Nomura raised the target price on the stock to 8,3 euros from 7,6 euros, confirming the rating at neutral.
A WEEK THE BAD BANK OF INTESA AND UNICREDIT
Unicredit (+1,6%) extends in the final and reaches the maximum since last October 27th at 6,07 euros. The joint management project of a restructuring loan portfolio of Unicredit and Intesa Sanpaolo with KKR should see the light in the coming weeks. When fully operational, the vehicle should manage loans worth over 1 billion euros.
Entente +2,08%. Bernstein raised his target price to 3,1 euros from 2,9 euros, confirming the outperform recommendation. Volatile trend for Monte Paschi +0,18% after the announcement of the increase. Brilliant ideas for other securities in the sector: Ubi +3,5%, Mediobanca +2,7%, Bpm and Banco Popolare +1,9%, Bper +1,6%.
RCS BOOKS, THE BOD ON SALES TODAY. TOWERS STILL MOVING
The Fininvest world is always on the move. The board of RCS Mediagroup (+4,61%) could today give the green light, under certain conditions, to the sale of the subsidiary books to Mondadori (+0,16%). The tower sector is still in turmoil. EiTowers (+3%) and RaiWay (+2%) are up. In a hearing in the Senate, the president of the subsidiary Rai, Camillo Rossotto, reiterated that the company is not contestable. Guido Barbieri, CEO of the company in the Mediaset area is more optimistic (+2,1%). The manager said he could not answer the question of whether the condition of validity of the takeover bid will be changed, which sets a minimum level of adhesion at 66,7%, but he did not rule out any changes which "should in any case maintain the industrial value unchanged and the financial returns of the project”.
Weak Telecom Italia -0,4%. Upswings for Go Internet +18% and MC-Link +5,5% active in broadband services.
SOCGEN SUPPORTS UTILITIES
Enel rises by 0,7%. Snam +2,3% and Terna +1,9% also moved up. On both stocks SocGen reiterated the Hold opinion, however raising the target to 4,20 euro (from 3,80 euro) for Terna and to 4,70 euro (from 4,10 euro) for Snam. If the dividend policy is confirmed, Terna and Snam are able to recognize a return of around 5%. Oil stocks were positive: Eni+0,8%, Saipem+0,7%. Tenaris closed the session up 1% at 12,92 euros. To cope with the drop in demand for special pipes used above all by the oil industry, the Italian-Argentine group is reducing its production capacity, with repercussions on employment in the Italian plants.
FCA, 6,6 MILLION REMUNERATION TO MARCHIONNE FOR 2014
Among industrial stocks, StM +1,8%, Prysmian +1% and Pirelli +1,4% shine. FiatChrysler +1%. Sergio Marchionne, received a salary of over 2014 million euros in 6,61 as CEO of FCA. The annual basic salary is equal to 2,5 million, but incentives for 4 million to which 'other compensation' for 111.410 euros are added. In 2013 Marchionne had received as CEO of Lingotto 3,6 million and stock options from Chrysler for 200 thousand dollars. From CNH Industrial, in his role as chairman, Marchionne also received more than 2,52 million dollars in respect of last year (2,1 million in 2013). As for the president of FCA, John Elkann, in 2014 he received over 1,68 million euros for this assignment and 175 thousand dollars as a member of the board of CNH industrial.
In the automotive sector, Brembo's leap +4,4% after the balance sheet data stands out. Finally, there was a strong increase in cement manufacturers after the good results of Italcementi +4,1%. Buzzi rises by 3%.
