World trade continues to record a weak trend. In the third quarter of 2016, the volume of goods exported worldwide fell by 0,5% y/y and by 1,8% compared to the April-June period; a negative trend change in volumes has not been recorded since the end of 2009. The poor performance of Chinese sales weighed heavily on the overall slowdown in the first nine months of 2016, which recorded a decline both in terms of volumes and in terms of values expressed in dollars currents.
The slowdown in trade occurs in a period of recovery in protectionism. According to the European Commission, between October 2008 and the end of 2015, 1.059 new protectionist measures were introduced by the EU's trading partners. Studies conducted by other institutions and referring to a broader definition of a trade restriction measure count more than three times as much.
The resurgence of protectionism went hand in hand with the slowdown and then the end of the multilateral trade agreements. In recent years, the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) is one of the most controversial trade agreement hypotheses, a project that would have involved 12 Pacific countries (the most important of which, apart from the USA, was Japan) which overall represent two fifths of the world economy. After the United States withdraws, the probability that the agreement will be concluded anyway is low.
Many of the potential members had made substantial concessions to reach the agreement in the hope of gaining access to the huge American market in exchange, which is now out of the question. At the moment, moreover, ways that envisage agreements involving the two main countries in the world by size and share of world trade do not seem feasible: China and the United States. Over the past 15 years, the relationship between the two countries in terms of exports and imports has remained solid and slightly biased in favor of China. According to statistics provided by Unctad, the United States absorbs around 18% of Chinese exports, while 7,7% of foreign sales of American goods arrive in China.
This relationship can be summarized with a US trade balance with China that has remained constantly negative over the last ten years. However, an analysis that takes into account the effective added value exported from China to the United States (and not the entire value of the goods and services that cross the Chinese border to arrive in the United States) shows that the American deficit is partly overestimated and offers interesting food for thought.
