The judgment of the markets on Tsipras' proposals, but not only. The markets are starting to face a "hot" week on the geopolitical front, dominated by the Ukrainian emergency. For Italy, the key appointment will be Moody's judgment on the Italy rating, from which comforting notes could finally arrive for 2015, a "fertile" year to quote Matteo Renzi. The verdict will be announced on Friday, when the Italian GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2014 will also be communicated.
A new sign of concern has fallen on the work of the financial G20, underway in Turkey: the difficulties of Beijing's economy. The Chinese trade surplus in January (60 billion dollars) is not the result of the growth of exports (-3,33%) but of the collapse of imports (-19,9%) of raw materials, which confirms the slowdown of the industry. Oil purchases (-41,8%), iron ore (-50.3%) and above all coal (-61,8%) plummeted.
Asian stock exchanges and Australia held back this morning, both down by almost one percentage point. The exceptions are Tokyo, up slightly thanks to the weak yen, and Shanghai (+0,2%). Futures on the opening of European markets are down. Oil rose again (Brent +0,9% to 58,33 dollars a barrel), the euro moved little at 1,1320, however close to the lows (1,1289).
ATHENS CALLS FOR A MORATORY. AND REOPENS THE STATE TV
Above all, it will be the week of Greece. On Wednesday, Greek Finance Minister Iannis Varoufakis will ask the Eurogroup for a "bridge agreement" until the presentation of an overall plan on reforms and debt. Yesterday Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras illustrated his program in Parliament: no to negotiations with the Trojka, request for a "bridging loan" to get to the summer without extending the current financing programme, expiring at the end of the month, to find meanwhile a new comprehensive agreement avoiding default. “Despite the difficulties, it is possible.” Difficult for EU partners to accept, given the first moves by the government: stop privatisations, reopening of public TV, re-employment of fired civil servants and free health care for all.
TREASURY AUCTIONS. THE BTP TRY THE PASS ON SPAIN
On Saturday, the governor of the Bank of Italy Ignazio Visco revised the estimates upwards: our country, thanks also to the injection of liquidity from the QE (130 billion from March to mid-2016), will rise by 0,5% in 2015 and by 1,5% in 2016. It's a good premise for the mid-month Treasury auctions. It begins on Wednesday 11 with the offer of 7 billion BTPs over 12 months (against the 8 billion maturing). Thursday will be the turn of the Btp3 (quantities will be communicated tomorrow).
The week's objective is ambitious: to match and surpass downwards the yields of the Spanish Bonos: only 8 bps divide the Madrid bonds from those of Rome. On Friday, the Italian 1,577-year bond traded at 120%, just above the all-time low. The spread is at 6. Curiosity, finally, for the placement of German XNUMX-month bonds this morning: an opportunity to understand what price operators are willing to pay, three weeks after the start of the Q, to park at negative rates its own liquidity.
ETFs, after the QE, focus on Europe
The markets of the Eurozone, thanks to the Qe, find themselves in the unusual role of the locomotive of the price lists. The confirmation comes from Blackrock data on ETFs: in January 14 billion flowed into products dedicated to Europe against 18 billion disinvestments from US markets. The data helps to understand why the European Stock Exchanges have limited the damage in the face of the Greek abyss. The Eurostoxx 600 index (+1,7% during the week) reached a seven-and-a-half-year high on Friday.
In Milan, the Ftse Mib index rose by 1,3% in line with the other European lists: Frankfurt +1,42%, London +1,52%, Madrid +1,63% and Paris +1,88% . Since the beginning of the year, the increase in the main price list of Piazza Affari is equal to 9,2%. The rebound in oil, with the WTI reaching 51,6 dollars a barrel (up 17%) favored the recovery of US stock markets. The decisive push, on Friday, came from the data, brighter than expected, on new jobs: +257 units. The S& P index rose 3,5% during the week.
CREDIT IN MOVEMENT BETWEEN POPULAR SPAS AND BAD BANK
Spotlight focused on the banking system during the week. Ignazio Visco, speaking on Saturday at the Forex conference, reiterated the Bank of Italy's support for the reform of the cooperative banking system. Great strides forward also for the issue of the bad bank (or non-performing loans) through the establishment of a non-banking vehicle to which securitized securities can be conferred, with a "sacrifice" divided between banks and public hands, to then be placed on the market.
It is within this changing reality that the week dedicated to banking system accounts fits in. We begin this morning with data from Mediobanca for the first half of the year. Tomorrow it will be the turn of Intesa, Bpm and Bper. Wednesday will be the turn of Ubi, Unicredit and Banco Popolare. The calendar also includes the accounts of UnipolSai (Tuesday 10). Among the relevant notes of the past week, the return of interest in Popolari stands out: Banco Popolare and Popolare dell'Emilia Romagna gained respectively 11,7% and 10,7%.
TELECOM: REBOUND TESTS, WAITING FOR METROWEB
Evidence of recovery for Telecom Italia, one of the worst stocks on the list in the past week: - 6,8% after the withdrawal of Marco Fossati's Findim, which fell below 2% on the grounds that "our share is no longer strategic". The loss of speculative appeal of the Brazil dossier also weighs after Marco Patuano announced that the company will focus only on Tim Brasil, without wishing to reach an agreement with Oì.
The most important match, however, concerns Metroweb: F2i has made it known that the choice of the minority partner is imminent. On the towers front, after the exclusive granted by Wind to the Spanish Abertis, operators await the countermove of Ei-Towers: Equita analysts write that "Ei Towers could now focus on the opportunity of an Ei Towers-Rai Way negotiation ”. The freshman stock of Piazza Affari rose by 4,8%. But it does not seem time for agreements between a subsidiary of the Treasury and a company in the orbit of Mediaset.
THE REVIVAL OF SAIPEM, PIRELLI GIVES THE NUMBERS
Week marked by the recovery for oil stocks in line with the recovery in the price of crude oil. The best stock was Saipem (+9,2%). In the case of the oil equipment company, the rebound was motivated not only by the low prices touched by the share, but also by the new orders signed in Kashagan (1,8 billion euro).
Among the topics of the week also the board of directors of Pirelli, convened for Wednesday. A new opportunity to take stock of the state of health of the Italian automotive sector. The Financial Times noted this morning that the recovery of the car market in January is the first concrete sign of the recovery, albeit fragile, of the Italian economy.
