It could be the right time. Athens has sent the long-awaited 12 billion plan to the Eurogroup on which the European institutions will pronounce themselves over the weekend. The path is fraught with difficulties but "the prospects of an agreement - reads a note from JP Morgan - are improving".
Good news also arrives from Shanghai: after a week of terror, the lists, thanks to the measures taken by the government to defend the market, are recovering. In this context, the markets are heading towards a bull session.
CHINA PUT THE BEAR IN PRISON. IT COMES UP WALL STREET
Strong rebounds of the indices Shanghai e Shenzhen, with increases of between 5 and 6%. The injection of liquidity was decisive but, above all, the ban on shareholders with shares in a company exceeding 5% from selling securities for the next six months. An unorthodox move but popular among the 50 million Chinese who own A-shares.
Hong Kong recovers 1,9%, about half of what was lost on "Black Wednesday". Weaker Tokyo (+0,4%): the negative trend in consumption weighs heavily, as evidenced by the disappointing data of Fast Retailing, the leader in the retail sector.
It also regains altitude Wall Street: the Dow Jones index recovered 0,19%, the S&P 500 about 0,5% and the Nasdaq 0,26%. The signs that make a rate hike less likely are multiplying: weekly claims for unemployment benefits rose by 15 to 297, well above the 277 forecast by consensus.
Il IMF it revised its growth estimates for 3,3 downwards to 3,4% (against 2015%). This is the effect of the contraction in US GDP in the first quarter, which also slowed down the economic situation in Canada and Mexico.
The prices of the Petroleum: Brent rose by 3,1% to 58,82 dollars a barrel and Wti, after losing 13% since June 30, by 1,13 dollars to 52,78 dollars. The negotiations on the Iranian nuclear power have entered the decisive phase, but closure during the day seems unlikely.
EUROPE CANCEL THE EFFECTS OF NO. MILAN +3,5%
The European Stock Exchanges have erased the effects of the great fear generated by the victory of the no votes in the Greek referendum last Sunday. Piazza Affari, the hardest hit, leads the rebound of the lists, ready to bet for the umpteenth time on the happy ending of the Greek tragedy. In Milan, the FtseMib index rose yesterday by 3,5%, the Paris Stock Exchange gained 2,5%, Frankfurt +2,4%, Madrid +3%.
THE SPREAD BELOW 150 BP. TODAY THE AUCTION BOT
The BTP also strengthened, trading at a yield of 2,17% from 2,21% yesterday. Spreads down to 144 (-9 basis points), twenty less than the levels reached on Monday, after the vote in Athens. Today the 12-month Bot auction will be held, amounting to 6,5 billion, the first act of the mid-month offers. On the gray market, the stock traded at the end of the morning in the 0,162% area, on the auction highs since last February. But attention is focused on longer maturities: on Monday 13th, a total of between 5,25 and 7,5 billion BTPs at 3, 7, 15 and 30 years will be auctioned. For each of the two extra-long bonds, the offer is up to 1,5 billion.
ATHENS SELLS VAT, PENSIONS AND DEFENSE IN EXCHANGE OF FUNDS
Greece's proposals arrived in Brussels on Thursday evening. Today, in a climate made incandescent by the depletion of ATM cash supplies, the Greek Parliament will have to decide, in practice, whether to avoid default or not. Part of Siryza is against the agreement, but the necessary votes could come from the opposition, which was in contact with Brussels yesterday.
Among the proposed measures, the VAT discount on the islands by 2016, a rate increased to 23% for restaurants and catering, and 13% for hotels. Cuts to pensions and the defense budget. Greece, in exchange for the proposed reforms, is asking creditors for 53,5 billion to honor loans until June 2018 and is also asking to review the primary objective of a surplus for the next 4 years.
The first signs of willingness to review debt conditions are coming from Germany. An agreement in extremis seems possible: the Eurogroup will be held on Saturday at 15 pm, the Eurosummit and the European Council will be held on Sunday.
BANKS IN RECOVERY: GREECE COSTS 17%
In Europe, the Stoxx index of the Banking sector rose by 2,8%, Insurance +2,7%. According to SocGen, Italian banks represent an effective way to bet on the positive outcome of the Greek match.
A report by the institute confirmed the overweight judgment on the sector, explaining that "the outperformance of Italian banks which started in early 2015 stopped on 26 June, when Tsipras called for a referendum to vote for or against the conditions of creditors . In less than two weeks, the Italian bank stocks we cover have fallen by an average of 17%”. Equities have therefore returned to attractive levels.
Compared to the past, the risk of contagion from the Greek crisis to the European banking systems of the euro periphery, including Italy, is less, but has not been completely eliminated, meanwhile says a report by the Moody's rating agency.
In this context, MontePaschi regained its share from the lows (+5,7%). Intesa (+4,6%), Unicredit (+4,3%), Banca Pop.Milano (+4,8%) also rose again. Ubi gains 5,6%. Insurance and asset management were also positive: Generali +3,5%, UnipolSai +3,6%. Mediolanum rises by 4,6%, Anima +4,3%, Azimut +3,4%.
Eni (+3,6%) took advantage of the recovery in crude oil prices. But the fall of Saipem -2,3% stands out in the list, the only stock in the red. The company was canceled by Gazprom the contract for the offshore laying of the Turkish Stream gas pipeline in the Black Sea. in the first instances, the quotation touched the lowest level since February at 8,25 euro. Following the latest news, Citigroup has decided to cut the recommendation to Neutral on the stock.
Both Enel (+3,9%) and Enel Green Power (+2,8%) closed higher. Saras +5,6%.
THE MEDIASET-VODAFONE AXIS AT THE START. FINMECCANICA SRPINT
Telecom Italia gains 2,6%. Mediaset is running (+4,5%) which has announced an agreement with Vodafone for the dissemination of Premium content (cinema, TV series and football) to the telecommunications company's customers.
Among industrialists, Fiat Chrysler gains 2,5%: Kepler Cheuvreux cut its target price to 13 from 14 euros (confirming the hold recommendation) due to weak expectations for Latin America. Prysmian +3,7%, Buzzi +2,3%.
Finmeccanica ends the session with a gain of 3,3% to 11,57 euros, +8% in two sessions. The group yesterday announced an offer to purchase its bonds up to a nominal value of 450 million euros. The aim is to use available liquidity to reduce the issuer's gross debt, to strengthen the capital structure and to reduce financial charges, explains a note.
It also recovers the luxury. The strongest increases are from Moncler (+4,6%) and Yoox (+3,4%). Finally, Salini Impregilo did well (+4,8%). The group was awarded the contract worth 300 million for the construction of primary urban infrastructure in Shamal, a residential development area located about 100 km from the capital Doha in the far north of Qatar.
