AT RISK THE TRIPLE A EU. THE MERKOZY PLAN ON THE RISE. LESS RATES AND MORE LIQUIDITY, DRAGONS ON THE FIELD TODAY
Low blow by S&P on the eve of the Brussels summit: the rating agency has decided to also put the triple-A rating of the European Union under observation. Furthermore, the votes of seven major European banks were targeted for further demotion: Intesa and UniCredit for Italy, Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank for Germany, Crédit Agricole, BNP Paribas and Société Générale for France. It is a nice greeting card for the summit preceded by a joint letter from Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel to Hermann van de Rompuy asking for "more stringent rules and commitments" for the countries of the eurozone. Another wish, more disturbing and sinister, is the parcel bomb delivered to the headquarters of the Deutsche Bank in Frankfurt, addressed to the president Joseph Ackerman.
The most positive note, on the eve, lies in the start of the parliamentary process of the Italian maneuver of the government chaired by Mario Monti, with some important corrections: a higher threshold for the adjustment of pensions to inflation, which has risen to 1.400 euros, and the possible reduction of the IMU. This morning the premier, who will reserve his first official trip to Libya, will see US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner in Milan.
GERMANY SEES BLACK. Pretactic, diplomatic skirmishes or serious rift? German stiffening on the eve of the European summit of heads of state froze the hope that the Eurozone had finally broken the vicious circle that led it, from the Greek crisis onwards, to one step away from disaster. But, suddenly, yesterday afternoon senior German government officials told news agencies that the chancellor Angela Merkel looks pessimistically at the meeting of European leaders in Brussels which opens this morning. "Several protagonists have absolutely not understood the seriousness of the situation," said a close collaborator of the chancellor. Who was he referring to? Several countries consider the German requests too invasive but, it seems, there is no longer room for discussion. Furthermore, it is not excluded that a fracture emerges from the summit between the 17-member eurozone and the other 10 EU countries. David Cameron, in particular, has made it known that he will defend the interests of the City.
COLD SHOWER ON BAGS. The reaction on the markets was immediate: the London Stock Exchange lost 0,3%, Frankfurt -0,5%, Paris closed unchanged. Milan lost the most: -1,2%. Government bond yields also started to rise again: that of the ten-year BTP rose to 5,96% (+15 basis), the spread with the German Bund widened to 388 basis points. Speaking of bunds, the German five-year bond auction was successful; securities worth 4,1 billion were placed at a rate of 1,11% (compared to the previous 1,10%).
Thwarted the script of Wall Street. Never as this year has the fate of the US market been so connected to the lists of the Old Continent: the correlation index is equal to 0,85, the highest since the birth of the euro. The S&P 500 index closed down -0,36%, the Nasdaq - 0,62%, the Dow Jones -0,04% balanced. Asian price lists are down: Tokyo -0,66, Hong Kong -0,69%. Among the negative notes, the drop in exports of Japanese machine tools (.6,9%) and the unexpected drop in employment in Australia. Signs of nervousness in Beijing: the yuan is losing ground against the dollar (6,3659 at the lows of the range).
WEATHER STOCK: RAINY START. Futures on the US stock market signal uncertainty, European ones tend towards a (moderate decline) with the exception of Zurich. The risks associated with a flop at the European summit represent a nightmare that cannot be overlooked for all global finance operators.
THE SWORD OF THE ECB (AND THE EBA). The markets could find a precious ally in Mario Draghi: today the ECB could announce the expected rate cut, the second in two months. Furthermore, less spectacular but all the more effective, the ECB could announce the expansion of credit conditions for the banking system, with the admission of new guarantees. And the operators hope that the governor will find, in the press conference, the right words to lash the politicians meeting in Brussels. Finally, today at 18 pm, the European banking authority, the EBA, will issue its verdict on the capital increases requested, in particular, of Italian and Spanish banks.
ULTIMATUM FROM MEDIOBANCA TO FONDIARIA
MARINA GROSSI TOWARDS SELEX EXIT
In Piazza Affari there are widespread losses among the banks: Unicredit fell by 2,4%, Banco Popolare -0,2%, Intesa lost 2,7%. Conversely, Popolare Milano held its own, up 1,5% after rumors about the possible entry into the capital of a consortium of private shareholders alongside the Bonomi group. Monte Paschi lost 5,6%. Ubi Banca + 4,1% goes against the trend. Generali fell by 2,4%.
Heavy thud for Fondiaria Sai - 5,8%, destined to give way to Ferragamo + 2,7% in the Blue Chips list. The changing of the guard will take place on Monday 19 December. Despite the resistance of Salvatore Ligresti, hovers over Fondiaria Sai the specter of a new capital increase, in the order of 500 million. The company has made it known that the hypothesis of the creation of a vehicle company in which to park the strategic shareholdings, already widely anticipated by the media, "is being investigated". Meanwhile Mediobanca, exposed for over one billion against the insurance group, has formally requested clarifications on the plans to meet its commitments: an absolute novelty given the historical relations between Piazzetta Cuccia and Salvatore Ligresti.
Among industrialists, Finmeccanica fell by 1,8%. The Fitch agency downgraded the holding's title from BBB to BBB-, also on the basis of the modest performance of the first 9 months of the year. In the meantime, Marina Grossi will leave the Selex top in a matter of days.
Fiat -2,4%, Fiat Industrial -0,8%, StM -1,3%. Instead, the maneuver gave Landi Renzo wings, which gained 18% on expectations that the increase in petrol prices would favor the sale of gas-powered cars.
PUT A VIAGRA IN THE CONDOM
THE TITLES OF FUTURA MEDICAL FLY
The killer idea of 2012 could come from the world of pharma: Futura Medical, an English company with not so brilliant balance sheets, has concluded an agreement with Renckitt Benckiser, a multinational which, among other things, has total control of the shares of Durex , leader in the condom market. Futura has developed a patent that allows its drug, Zanifil, to be combined with a specific condom. In summary, to quote one of Futura's large shareholders, David Mahoney, “It's basically a Viagra inside a condom. I wouldn't be surprised if Renckitt Benckiser wanted to take over the whole company or at least the patent”. No comment from Renchitt who mostly deals with detergents or other household products. But Futura's shares jumped 25% yesterday.
