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The Draghi plan and the soft solution for Italy

The Bond purchase plan presented today by Mario Draghi outlines a possible trick for Italy - Rome could ask for help from the ESFS through an ECCL credit line, which provides for less stringent conditions than full aid, thus being eligible for the OMT but at the same time continue to finance themselves on the markets.

The Draghi plan and the soft solution for Italy

Draghi has not forgotten his native country. The president of the European Central Bank today presented the new plan for the purchase of government bonds on the secondary market with the aim of rebalancing the differences between the spreads of the eurozone countries. The new element is the OMT (Direct Monetary Transactions) or unlimited (but "conditional") purchases of bonds, from one to three years, on the secondary market of the countries of the euro area. On one crucial point this plan differs from the previous one (Smp): conditionality. In fact, the prerequisite for which a country can be elected a beneficiary of the program is that it asks for help from the state-saving fund, whether it is the EFSF or the ESM. In other words, that the countries submit to the austerity conditions imposed by the EU.

But there is an interesting novelty for Italy. Indeed to access the Omst, it is not necessarily necessary to ask the State-saving fund for a complete aid program which therefore precludes the Member State from continuing to finance itself on the markets (as Greece, Portugal and Ireland did), but just take advantage of an EFSF precautionary program, the so-called Enhanced conditions credit line or Eccl.

The Eccl, which so far no country has ever used, is one softer way to ask for help. It only applies to those countries that have a solid economy, but with some flaws, and which therefore, even if they receive aid, can continue to finance themselves on the markets. It is enough for the country to show that it is committed to improving its weakness, in Italy's case for example the public debt, and it would thus obtain the credit line. 

And it is precisely a light program of this type that Italy may need. What is blocking the growth of our country are interest rates that are too high, mainly due to the delay with which the markets recognize the progress made. But it is a dog that bites its tail, because interests that are too high in turn keep the achievement of objectives away. If Italy had the guarantee that, in case of need, the ECB could intervene and buy its securities in the secondary market (which could now happen through the ECCL and therefore the OMT), it is not an exaggeration to think that the spread would decrease around 200 basis points, a level at which, according to the Bank of Italy, our spread should remain.  

 

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