Banco Popolare dropped 3,82% against the almost 2% drop in the Ftse Mib and is currently the most targeted by the sales of the five Italian banks subjected to the stress test (Unicredit lost 3,22%, Intesa 3,54. 2,94%, Mps 1,74% and Ubi XNUMX%).
In recent hours there have been numerous innovations concerning the group led by Pier Francesco Saviotti: the launch of the reorganization of the group last Friday with the incorporation by merger of the local subsidiaries with the exception of Creberg; the abandonment of dual governance (“for a popular bank the traditional model is better” said the chairman of the supervisory board Carlo Fratta Pasini); the overcoming of European stress tests also released last Friday; entry into Mittel, with an estimated stake of between 5% and 8% of the capital following the reorganization which will result in the merger of Earchimede into Hopa, Hopa into Tethys and Tethys into Mittel.
And in the morning Saviotti once again denied the possibility of a new capital increase. Not only. He also flatly rejected the hypothesis that Credito Bergamasco was not incorporated like the other local banks with a view to a future sale on the market. "It is absolutely not for sale", he said, explaining that the incorporation of the only one listed on the Stock Exchange among the territorial companies would have cost around 37 basis points of core tier 1 because a public offer on the shares not currently held directly by the Bank would also have been necessary Popular. While he did not rule out the transfer of the branches in Sicily: “No decision was made – he said – we had suspended the negotiations because in our opinion the conditions were not adequate. If in the future there were a flashback, we would not rule out a possible sale.
The declarations come during the press conference to present the reorganization and while the market is still wondering about the capitalization of the group, the institute's Achilles heel for many analysts even after the finalization of the new 2011-2013/2015 business plan presented some week ago. United we win? We will see. What is certain is that the single bank plan anticipated in its essential lines as early as the presentation of the industrial plan underwent an acceleration in the summer precisely in conjunction with the results of the stress tests, reaching the approval of the councils last Friday.
These are the key steps: the incorporation into the Banco delle Popolari of Verona, Novara, Lodi and of the Cassa di Risparmio di Lucca Pisa and Livorno and the transition from the dual governing body to the traditional board of directors; Credito Bergamasco will maintain the status of listed company subject to the control and direction and coordination of Banco Popolare; the new territorial model envisages the creation of divisions in the traditional historical areas of presence and reference for the local communities which tend to correspond to the historical brands which will overcome the overlapping of branches; the number of business areas will be expanded and customers with large assets will continue to be looked after by Banca Aletti.
The decision-making process that led to the birth of the new model of large cooperative bank “was complex and lengthy and resulted in a unanimous decision. The new model is a winner – commented Fratta Pasini. – The decisions taken are the most suitable solutions for the market, to maintain the popular bank, to make it more common, more shared by all territories, strengthened in its popular identity, more efficient and effective".
A simplification that will make it possible to obtain important and structural economic benefits, additional to those already envisaged in the business plan. This is more than 90 million per year on profits. The net profit forecast by the plan thus improves to 647 million in 2013 (+44 million) and to 997 million in 2015 (+67 million). And the reorganization also brings benefits in terms of capital. The core tier emerging from the industrial plan is revised upwards to 7,9% in 2013 from 7,6% and to 8,7% in 2015 from 8,3%. Meanwhile, the European stress tests have ruled that in the event of a negative scenario, the Banco's core tier would drop to 5,7% in 2012 (the figure does not include the potential positive effects deriving from the planned corporate simplification project and would already rise today to 6,2. 5% if we consider the conversion of the soft mandatory bond for which Saviotti has again ruled out the conversion today), above the XNUMX% threshold required.
Yet the stress tests, not only for the Banco, have not convinced the markets that they're back to hitting the industry. Of course, the sector is feeling the effects of the broader attack on Italy, considered the weak link in Europe after Greece, Portugal, Ireland and Spain. But doubts have once again been raised among operators on the severity and realism of the stress tests in light of the situation of the sovereign debt crisis in Europe (which do not include the Greek default hypothesis). It is no coincidence that of the ninety banks subjected to the stress tests, only 8 failed the exam, a very small number which includes small, often unlisted banks located above all in Spain, where the weakness of the local banking system had already been known for some time. Results that are better than those expected by analysts.
“The stress tests of the EBA - says Kian Abouhossein of JP Morgan consulted by Bloomberg - is a result of little value for us because the exposure to sovereign debt of banks is not fully considered and is based on a relatively low threshold of 5% ”. Thus, for several operators, the wave of sales that hit the sector today was widely expected. "A fragile investor sentiment - Credit Suisse analysts write today in a report - requires decisive political steps and further recapitalizations for banks". And the market especially looks to those sixteen banks that have passed the test by the skin of the hand. And among these, together with some Spanish banks, the Greek Piraeus, the Cypriot Marfin and the Portuguese Millenium Bcp, there is also Banco Popolare, which is trying to recover by accelerating the reorganization of the group. "The bank is doing well", Saviotti said today, "and the results will lead us to become one of the best banks in our country"
