The S&P 500 index narrowly exceeds 2.000. Iron prices record a sudden leap: +17% in expectation of an imminent awakening of Chinese demand. Oil continues its run, exceeding 40 dollars a barrel. In short, there are signs of economic recovery.
But, two days before the ECB meeting, the reasons for prudence are also strengthening, starting with the nervousness of the banking systems, especially the Italian one. The Bank for International Settlements warns that "there is less trust in central banks" and that "what we see may not be isolated lightning bolts, but the signs of a nearby storm, which has been brewing for some time".
Stanley Fischer, number two at the Fed, reports that, fueled by high levels of employment, the recovery of inflation is approaching, a worrying indication less than ten days after the US central bank's rate decisions.
BASF IN THE FIELD TO BLOCK THE DOW-DU PONT AXIS
The result for the markets is a multi-coloured picture, supported by the recovery of commodities, but slowed down by several factors.
Wall Street's gains were modest and mixed: the Dow Jones index rose by 0,4%, the Nasdaq fell by 0,2%. The S&P index closed at 2.001,76, above the psychological peak of 2.000 points (it hadn't happened since January 5), thanks to a fractional rise of 0,09%.
In great evidence were the oil stocks (+2,4% the energy index) starting from the +2,6% of Exxon Mobil and the +3% of Chevron. Technologists were weak, hit by a shower of profit taking: Alphabet (formerly Google) and Facebook lost 2%, Apple -1,1%, Netflix -6%.
Meanwhile, the market is preparing for a clash between chemical giants. Bloomberg anticipated that an offer from the German Basf capable of blowing up the 55 billion dollar merger between DuPont (+2,4%) and Dow Chemical is on the way.
CHINA, EXPORTS NEVER SO BAD SINCE 2009
Asian markets were weak this morning. Tokyo falls by 0,8%: in 2015 the Japanese GDP fell by 1,1%. Hong Kong is also weak (-0,9%). Shanghai is doing worse (-1,6%). The bad export data weighs on the Chinese market: -25,4% in dollars in February, one step away from the negative record of May 2009 (-26,45). Imports are also holding back (-13,8%).
A mixed start is also looming for the European lists, already characterized yesterday by the prevalence of profit-taking. Negative opening in sight both in London (-50 points) and in Paris (-32) and Frankfurt (-63).
Yesterday in Milan, the FtseMib index fell by 1,2%, with a clear improvement in the final: by mid-day it had lost more than 2%. The declines of the other Stock Exchanges were more contained: Paris -0,4%, London -0,6%, Frankfurt -0,5%.
Judging by the exchange rate trend (euro/dollar fluctuating slightly at 1,099) and by the caution of the markets, it does not seem that operators are expecting measures capable of supporting the recovery and reversing the falling price trend from the ECB meeting.
Even on the fixed-income market, the situation is calm, with the 1,44-year BTP trading at a yield of 124% and the spread with the Bund stable at XNUMX.
SAIPEM, PLACEMENT OF 6,3% OF THE CAPITAL
The oil stocks took care of supporting the lists. The EuroStoxx Oil & Gas sector index closed up 0,5%. It is the only sector whose performance has turned positive since the beginning of the year (+1,7%). Brent returned to 40 dollars a barrel (+3,5%), WTI crude to 37,1 dollars (+3,4%).
In Piazza Affari, Saipem stood out (+7,2%). Yesterday evening JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs announced the placement on the Stock Exchange of 700 million shares of the company (about 6,3% of the capital) at a price of 0,39 euros per share. The underwriting syndicate thus placed all the securities deriving from the increase. Jefferies upgraded the judgment to Hold from the previous Underperform. The target price was set at 0,44 euro, cut from the previous 0,45 euro.
Little movement Eni (+0,3% to 13,52 euros). Tenaris +1,1%. Crude oil recovery hurts refiners. Thus Saras loses out (-4% to 1,46 euros). The company reported that the average refining margin of the Mediterranean area (EMC Benchmark) last week fell to $1,80/bbl from the previous $2,40/bbl. It is the lowest level of the year.
Confidence in a decline in the supply of crude oil is favoring the rise in prices. Yesterday Azerbaijan said it was in favor of the proposal of Russia and Saudi Arabia: Rovnag Abdullaiev, CEO of the state oil company Socar, declared that "oil production in Azerbaijan in 2016 will not be higher than in 2015". Meanwhile, statistics show that the number of active drillers in the United States has dropped by 75% since September 2014, returning to 2009 levels. The retreat of shale oil serves to rebalance the relationship between supply and demand in the medium term.
BRAKE THE GERMAN CAR. CNH HAS BEEN TAKEN WITH CATERPILLAR
Nervous day for the German brands, waiting to interpret the indications coming to the new five-year plan of the Chinese economy, the first market for Volkswagen dropped by 3,3%.
Fiat Chrysler, on the other hand, holds (-0,6%), returning from seven consecutive hikes: last week it closed with a 15% increase, the best performance in the last 16 months. FCA announced the extension of the closure of the plant where the Chrysler 200 is produced by three weeks. The Maserati plant in Grugliasco will continue also in April with the reduction of the production of the Quattroporte and Ghibli models through the use of layoffs.
CNH Industrial advanced by 0,6% in the wake of Caterpillar (+2,4% on Wall Street).
BANKS, RATES ON PROFITS UNKNOWN. CARIGE, THE LANDSLIDE CONTINUES
The Stoxx index of European banks closed down by 1,1%. The sector is penalized by the prospect of a lowering of the rates of remuneration of deposits by the ECB.
In a report released yesterday morning, Goldman Sachs calculates that every 10 basis points of cut downwards translates into a 2-3% drop in earnings per share for the eurozone aggregate. Barclays also points out that negative rates are bad for banks, as the reduction in the cost of procuring liquidity is outweighed by the decline in revenues from bonds held in the portfolio.
The situation of Italian banks is more complex, weakened by the rejection by the European Supervision of Carige accounts (-7,8%). Meanwhile, in view of the renewal of the board of directors of the Ligurian institute, the shareholders headed by the Spinelli family and Gabriele Volpi have combined their shares, totaling 7,57% of the capital.
The decline involved the entire sector. Bper falls (-5,2%), followed by Mps (-4,7%). Banco Popolare (-4,1%) and Bpm (-2,7%) also fell. Negotiations on the merger between the two banks continue. But the go-ahead from the ECB's Supervision is still missing.
Strong decreases for Ubi (-3,7%), Mediobanca (-2,9%), and the two big names: Intesa -2,4% and Unicredit -2,3%.
Among the insurance companies, Generali lost 1,7%, while the French Axa dropped by 1,1%.
MONCLER IN THE HSBC TOP TEN
In the Luxury sector, Ferragamo's rise (+3,5%) stands out. Also in evidence is Moncler, up 1,5% to 15,07 euros. HSBC listed the title as a Top Ten in Europe. The judgment is Buy with a target price of 20 euros. This is the best blue chip FtseMib since the beginning of 2016 with a gain of 14%. It closed 2015 with a gain of 16%.
The president and CEO Remo Ruffini is optimistic: "Although the international scenario remains uncertain, I am confident that this too will be a year of further growth and consolidation for our brand", he said in the note.
Stable Luxottica (+0,14%). Delfin, the holding headed by Leonardo Del Vecchio, on 2 March purchased 1,51 million shares, equal to 0,31% of the capital, for a value of approximately 77,8 million euro.
BACKWARDS OF TELECOM AND MEDIASET
Telecom Italia's retreat (-3,6%) after the strong gains of the previous sessions (+11% last week's performance) should be noted. Mediaset drops by 2%. Enel slips down by 1,4%, Terna -1,3%, Atlantia -1,4%.
Among industry stocks, StM (-0,4%) and Finmeccanica (-1,3%) fell.
