After two collapses, comes the rebound. Yesterday, on the Nymex, oil gained 8%, 2,4 dollars, to 32,28 dollars a barrel. The recovery came despite weekly inventories in the United States having grown by 7,8 million barrels, above estimates, stuck at +4,8 million. The total has risen above 500 million barrels for the first time since 1930.
However, the weakening of the dollar supported the quotations, due to the lack of expectations for a monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve. Encouraging data from China also helped. Furthermore, investors seem to be hoping again for a potential agreement on a production cut between OPEC and non-member countries such as Russia.
Moscow says it is willing to negotiate but such an agreement seems unlikely. Even Vladimir Voronkov, the Russian representative to OPEC, said it, quoted by the Interfax agency. According to him, reaching a "consensus among OPEC countries to hold a meeting [with non-member countries] is difficult".
However, the fundamentals remain unpromising. According to Morgan Stanley, a rebalancing of supply and demand will not take place before mid-2017: "Despite the myriad announcements of cuts in capital expenditure, production has yet to respond to a market rebalancing".
