In the USA, awaiting today's employment data, Donald Trump has achieved his first, albeit partial, political success: the House of Representatives approved (217 yes against 213 no) his health care reform that would wipe out Obamacare. The conditional is a must because in the Senate the difficulties will be much higher and a completely different project could pass. After which it would take months to reconcile the projects and bring the law to signature, which would inevitably postpone the much more complex tax reform to 2018. This also explains Wall Street's caution in dealing with the drop in oil, which has slipped at the levels of last November 28th.
THE OIL AND COMMODITIES LANDSLIDE CONTINUES IN ASIA
Brent closed down 4,7%, at 48,4 dollars a barrel, but the descent did not stop during the night. This morning, on Asian markets, the reference future is traded at 47 dollars a barrel, down 2,5%. The violent fall in the price of crude oil is linked to the big maneuvers in view of the OPEC summit at the end of the month. An agreement on new production cuts seems difficult, also because the strong increase in the extraction of shale oil in the USA has thwarted the efforts of the cartel. Gasoline inventories, meanwhile, are at their highest levels in the face of declining consumption.
Fears of a decline in Chinese demand are unbalancing the entire commodity market. The Bloomberg Commodities Index is down 0,5% this morning and lost 1,8% yesterday. The sales hit iron ore most of all: the benchmark future for this quantity is down 7%, after closing 5% lower yesterday. The Hong Kong Stock Exchange is down by 1%, that of Shanghai by 0,7%. The Indian stock market also falls: BSE Sensex index -0,4%. Tokyo still closed.
OILS DOWN: LVMH IS WORTH MORE THAN TOTAL
The US price lists were almost flat last night. The Dow Jones index fell by 0,03%, S&P +0,06%. The Nasdaq (+0,05%) closes at 6.075,34 points. The energy sector (-1,9%) was the worst with heavy losses for Exxon (-1,3%) and Chevron (-1,8%). The evening crash saved Europe in part: Eni closed unchanged, Saipem -1,2%, Tenaris -2,7%. However, it should be noted that there has been a historic overtaking in Paris: the capitalization of Total has been overtaken by that of Lvmh, the luxury giant.
April job market data is out today, preceded yesterday by weekly jobless claims, which fell 19.000 to 238.000, its lowest level in 17 years. Meanwhile, the unit cost of labor rises (+3%).
On the corporate front, Tesla's tumble (-5%), after the publication of the accounts. The electric-car maker doubled revenue but reported higher-than-expected losses in the first quarter: $330,3 million versus $283 million a year ago, or $1,33 per share, versus 81 cents anticipated by analysts. However, revenue rose more than 100% to $2,7 billion and also beat forecasts, which stood at $2,61 billion.
MILAN AT HIGHEST SINCE JANUARY 2016, RECORD IN FRANKFURT
Rain of records for the European markets which celebrate the advantage of Emmanuel Macron in the race for the Elysée. Milan leads the race: the Ftse Mib index closed the session up by 1,98%, at 21.170, the highest since January 2016. The other markets were also positive: in Paris, the Cac 40 rose by 1,20 %, while the Frankfurt Dax 30 (+0,82%) achieved a new all-time high. London +0,17%.
The confidence of Italian purchasing managers is growing: the index reached 56,2, more than three points above the 52,9 in March. This is the best result since August 2007. The dollar weakened again against the euro, which rose to 1,096 from 1,088 yesterday.
BTP IN RECOVERY AWAITING THE VERDICT ON THE RATING
Tonight, after closed exchanges, S&P will pronounce itself on Italy's rating, two weeks after the downgrade by Fitch. A delicate examination because the agency currently attributes a BBB- rating to Italy, the lowest level of investment grade, with a stable outlook but which arrives at a propitious moment: the economy is buoyant, the electoral cycle of uncertainty is about to end. It is very unlikely that S&P will interrupt this happy moment. But the fact remains that, with the French elections closed, Italy is about to resume the awkward role of special observer of the Eurozone.
Positive closure for BTPs, up after a weak morning. Thanks to the sales on German government bonds, the Btp-Bund spread ended the session at the lows of the day, at 187 basis points, approaching the levels reached following Macron's victory in the first round.
The market is already discounting the victory of the En Marche candidate in next Sunday's French presidential ballot, an expectation reinforced by the progress of the televised debate. Immediately after the first round of the French presidential elections, the Italian 2,15-year rate fell to 2,36%, the lowest since the beginning of March, while this week it rose again to 0,40%. With a session high of 37%, the German ten-year rate returned to its highest levels since the end of March. In turn, the yield spread between French and German ten-year yields fell to XNUMX basis points, the lowest for almost six months.
TELECOM, RECCHI CONFIRMATION TODAY. THE TITLE FLYES
Battle to the last vote yesterday at theTelecom Italia assembly, +4,6% on the Stock Exchange thanks to better-than-expected results. Vivendi's list, with 10 candidates, prevailed as the majority list but with a minimal gap compared to that presented by the funds: 49,37% of those present against 49,005%.
Today the new board of directors, made up of ten representatives from the Vivendi list and five from the minority, will have to choose the new chairman: Giuseppe Recchi's confirmation is probable, but it is not excluded that the board will stall for time waiting for Brussels' response to the end communication March with which Vivendi had indicated that, following the shareholders' meeting, it could have de facto control over the telecommunications group as occurred. In this case, the function should be assigned to the most senior director, ie Franco Bernabè. Arnaud de Puyfontaine will be nominated after yesterday's vote. In the meantime, Piazza Affari promoted the management accounts of Flavio Cattaneo, who illustrated the company's performance in the meeting as follows: "In one year we have returned to growth all the main parameters, both in Italy and in Brazil, accelerating on the ultrabroadband , renewing the commercial strategy and managing costs with discipline”.
QUARTERLY BOOM: LEONARDO AND FERRARI IN RALLY
The quarterly reports held the court yesterday on the list. Leonardo in great dust, up 7,2% after closing the first quarter with slightly better results than expected. Revenues fell by 2,4% to 2,5 billion euros. Ebita rose by 14% to 330 million euros.
Leap forward for Ferrari (+5,6%), which later set a new historical record results beyond expectations. Revenues amounted to 821 million euros: the consensus of analysts cited by Reuters was 767 million euros. Growth is 22% - Adjusted Ebitda stood at 242 million euros, 20 million above the consensus.
Accounts above expectations also for Yoox (+4,9%). The company closed the first quarter of 2017 with revenues of 515 million euros, up 15,4% year on year. Sales in North America, the most important geographical area in terms of contribution to revenues, increased by 21,2%.
Azimut runs up 3,4% to 18,53 euros after announcing the results for the first quarter of 2017, which closed with the second best net profit in the company's history at 73 million, up 259% on the same period of 2016 .
Among the utilities, Snam (+2,1%) closed the first quarter with a net profit which rose by 19,8% to 254 million euro. Terna +2,8%: Rbc cut the Underperform recommendation from Sector Perform (equivalent to Neutral), however raising the target price to 4,75 euro from 4,5 euro.
ENEL: 2 BILLION BUY BACK. THE FUNDS AT 54%
Enel's rise (+2,2%) should be noted. Yesterday the assembly approved a buyback of 2 billion. The meeting revealed that institutional investors went from 41,9% of the capital in December 2013 to 54% at the end of 2016, a value never recorded in the history of the group, underlined the president Maria Patrizia Grieco, adding that in 3 years the value created for the shareholders amounted to 60%.
BANCO BPM LEADS THE CREDIT RACE
Positive banking across Europe on the back of good HSBC results. The index of Italian banks marks +2,92% against the +1,48% of the European one. Unicredit advances (+3,5%), which will release the quarterly results on May 10th. Understanding +2,5%. The greatest rise was recorded by Banco Bpm (+4,6%), followed by Bper (+3,6%).
Among industrialists, Fca +1,5%, Stm -0,2%. Buzz +3,5%.
BENEFIT TAKES ON JUVENTUS
Profits were taken on RCS (-3,73%) and on Juventus, which, after a sharp increase, closed with a drop of 0,84% after the victory in the first leg of the Champions League semi-final against Monaco.
D'Amico closed down 3,45% after the release of the results, which showed declining revenues, margins and profit. 15,79% jump Stefanel: the agreement with the creditor banks, informs a note, will be filed by the end of the month.
