"A lively and strong Italy, which has a great desire to restart": the portrait painted today for the Belpaese by Mario Draghi, on a visit to the ceramic district of Fiorano Modenese, also describes well the performance of the Stock Exchange, where the Ftse Mib, in the session, it returned for a few moments above 25.500 points, to the levels of 2008, before the collapse due to the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers.
In the final Piazza Affari moved away from that goal, to close up by 0,6% and consolidate its position over 25 points at 25.321. At the crest of the list are oil and industrial stocks and banks, in an atmosphere of confidence fueled by data on the economic recovery and also widespread in the rest of Europe and in the United States. Frankfurt updated its intraday record, to stop rising by 0,94%, Paris revised the highs reached in 2000; London +0,82%. Overseas Wall Street is moving in cautious progress, close to its record levels.
The oil rally helped to encourage purchases, taking advantage of the recovery underway and the weakness of the dollar, even if OPEC+, in a quick meeting held today, decided to confirm the commitment made in April to gradually reduce the cuts in production decided last year and to start putting about 2 million barrels a day on the market again between May and July. After this news, the August 2021 Brent future has reduced its progress but remains above 70 dollars a barrel.
As far as macro data is concerned, the recovery of the manufacturing sector in the Eurozone should be noted, with the index rising to 63,1 points in May, above expectations. Italy travels at a record pace, a level that IHS Markit analysts define as "amazing": 62,3 points. Providing a strong boost, says Markit, is "the seasonally adjusted New Orders Index, which hit an all-time high and showed a rapid increase in overall new order volume."
Istat also revises the estimates for the first quarter and reports that GDP rose by 0,1% between January and March and did not drop by 0,4% as previously thought at the end of April. The words of the premier are also useful in this case“thanks to the sacrifices of the Italians and the strong acceleration of the vaccination campaign, we have a new phase ahead of us. A phase of recovery and trust, on which to build a fairer and more modern country. And free the energies that have remained stagnant in recent years”. But be careful Draghi warns: "the opportunity given to us today is not to return to an institutional construction that was prevalent before the pandemic, because before the pandemic we grew very little and the great fear we have is that, once the pandemic is over and once a strong recovery has begun, this is not lasting and we are returning to that very modest growth path of recent years”.
Returning to the macro picture: inflation is rising. Eurostat's flash estimate indicates 2% after 1,6% in April. It is the first time that the euro area has exceeded the ECB's target since 2018. A fact - claims the Financial Times - which can complicate the decisions of policy makers on the stimuli in place. Until today, central banks have reassured investors about maintaining their policies, speaking of temporary flare-ups, not destined to last, will it continue like this?
The response from euro area government bond markets today was positive, as they remained stable. The yield on Italian 10-year bonds hit a three-week low, a sign of confidence that the European Central Bank will not decide to slow the pace of bond purchases when it meets on June 10. At the end, the spread between 102-year BTPs and Bunds of the same duration was 1,94 basis points (-0,85%) and the Italian bond rate was +XNUMX%.
We will see what happens in the United States this week, because important appointments are scheduled, which will offer a more up-to-date picture of the evolution of the fundamentals in the main economy of the world. The most awaited event is the publication of the May employment report, scheduled for Friday. First, there will be the Fed's Beige Book and ADP private sector jobs data (tomorrow), as well as the usual weekly jobless claims data (Thursday).
Meanwhile, today's manufacturing data show manufacturing activity buzzing in May, but grappling with shortages of raw materials and labour. In this context, the dollar remains under pressure. The euro appreciates slightly against the greenback and trades in the 1,24 area. On the other hand, the pound fell, put under pressure by a resurgence of Covid infections in the UK due to the variants. Returning to Piazza Affari, the top ten stocks with the highest capitalization are led by Saipem +3,98%; Tenaris +2,7%, Eni +2,37%.
Poste Italiane in the top ranking +2,03%; Cnh +1,66%; Pirelli +1,4%. Among the banks, Intesa +1,2% and Banco Bpm +1,03% stand out, while among the insurance companies Unipol +1,16; at the center of attention after the increase in the stake in Popolare di Sondrio. Well Atlantia, in view of the sale of Aspi to Cdp. Generali appreciates by 0,68%, following the news of the total takeover bid on Cattolica Assicurazioni (+0,43%). Down Diasorin -1,8%; Moncler -1,14%: Amplifon -0,8%; Inwit -0,65%.
