One of the big sisters of the rating could not miss the electoral appointment to warn the re-elected president Obama. “If the fiscal cliff issue is not resolved, the United States risks losing its maximum rating of triple A in 2013 – Fitch said in a note released in the afternoon – ”the challenge is to implement a credible deficit reduction plan necessary to support the economic recovery”. If the timing is questionable as usual, there is no doubt that the fears of the markets in view of the elections were concentrated precisely on the fiscal cliff: a narrow victory of one of the two candidates, which could lead to the formation of a weak executive and not in capable of tackling the very delicate issue of the "fiscal cliff" head-on, a mechanism that would automatically lead to a series of spending cuts and tax increases amounting to 600 billion dollars in the event that a political agreement is not reached.
For strategic analyst Alessando Politi interviewed by Firstonline, the biggest problem America has right now is its debt with China. Just tomorrow in Beijing, the other big appointment that has been awaited for months is on the agenda: the Communist Party congress.
Wall Street started down and at the end of Europe the Dow Jones dropped 2,39% and the Nasdaq 2,44%. But to bend the European price lists, while in Athens itself on the day of the vote in Parliament on the doi austeruty package for aid, there were also new signs of economic difficulties which by now, confirms Mario Draghi himself, also concern Germany. Piazza Affari leaves 2,50% on the ground, Frankfurt 1,96%, Paris 1,99% and London 1,58%.
The euro thus collapsed against the dollar to 1,2760 (-0,43%), despite renewed expectations in the US for the continuation of Bernanke's quantitative easing policy favored by Obama's re-election. Gold is also losing ground again (-0,44%) to 1.707 dollars an ounce and WTI oil collapses to 85,28 dollars a barrel (-3,87%).
In Germany, industrial production fell by 1,8% more than expected and the 5 Wise Men, the high-profile economists who advise the government, expect a GDP increase of only 0,8% next year, as in 2012, due to the repercussions of the eurozone debt crisis. It is the first prediction of the 5 essays on 2013 and is by far the most pessimistic among those made so far by bodies or institutions. Even the EU forecasts, released today, predict that the European locomotive will remain stationary at +0,8%.
"Germany's economy is starting to feel the impact of the debt crisis in Europe", said Draghi himself, reassuring however that the risks of a collapse of the eurozone have subsided and that many countries have made extraordinary progress by implementing the reforms needed for sustainable growth. For the president of the ECB, "the anti-spread plan (OMT), which provides for the purchase of government bonds of countries in difficulty, "will not generate inflation" or "greater risks for German taxpayers".
But the gloomy predictions for Europe today don't end there. The EU Commission has revised downwards the forecast for growth of the Eurozone's GDP in 2012, to -0,4% against -0,3% in May, and leaves the estimate for 2013 unchanged at +0,1. The decline for the forecasts of the EU-27 is stronger: -0,3% in 2012 (was 0,0%) and +0,4% in 2013 against the +1,3% expected in the spring. The EU and the eurozone will have to wait until 2014 for a "stronger and also better distributed expansion" of the economy.
Forecasts for Italy have also been revised downwards: in 2012 GDP will contract by 2,3%, in 2013 by 0,5% and will return to positive territory with +0,8% only in 2014, assuming that policies remain unchanged. Debt also worsened to 126,5% in 2012 and 127,6% in 2013. The Btp-bund spread rose again to 352 after a peak of 356 points and a yield of 4,91%. And it is an unemployment alarm that will touch 12% in 2013.
Lo BTP Bonos spread is up at 432 points. The data of Spain and Greece are also bad, as they exceed the objectives of reducing the deficit for the 2012-2014 period, at the end of which it should have been brought back below the 3% threshold. The countries will emerge from the recession only in two years according to the EU Commission.
Meanwhile the Greek Parliament rejected by a majority in the early afternoon a motion of unconstitutionality on the austerity package presented by Syriza, the radical left party and the Independent Greeks. The debate The vote on the package thus moved towards midnight. "A political decision can be reached in Monday's Eurogroup on Greece, given the constructive climate of discussions with the Troika, but everyone must do their part", said EU Commissioner Olli Rehn. Meanwhile Charles Dallara, the director general of the Institute of International Finance (Ifi), is expected next Tuesday in Athens, the following day, Dallara will deliver a speech in which he will illustrate the strategy to allow Europe and Greece to emerge from the crisis. For Roubini, the risk of Greece leaving Euroland in the next 6-9 months remains very high.
In Piazza Affari, only Autogrill held out in positive territory +0,30%. At the bottom of the Ftse Mib, Fiat collapses -6,65%, with the downside triggered by a Deutsche bank sell-off and accelerated by Europe's difficult economic data. For the broker, one of the reasons for the cut is the group's decision to focus too much on growth rather than cutting capacity, in a context of widespread over-production. As for the auto sector, one of the hardest hit by the economic crisis in Europe, tomorrow EU Industry Commissioner Antonio Tajani will reveal the details of a recovery plan for the sector. Stm also down by 6,30%. Debacle then of the banks weighed down by the rise in the spread and by fears about the Eurozone: Bper -4,77%, Bpm -4,38% and Unicredit -4,33%. In an interview with Sole24Ore, Libyan Lia, a significant shareholder in Piazza Cordusio, said she was open to the possibility of going up again, even if it is too early for an assessment of whether to go up or not. Entente -3,35% and Mps -1,49%. The luxury sector trims losses: Ferragamop -0,56% and Tod's -0,59%.
