Greece's exit from the single currency is no longer a taboo subject. On the contrary. This is confirmed by the words of German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble. ”If Greece decides to leave the euro, we cannot force it. They will decide whether to stay or not”. Phrases in stark contrast to what has been declared in recent months by the minister himself, who in the past has always used the imperative on the subject of Greece, indicating the paths, solutions and policies to be adopted.
An unexpected go-ahead. Today, Greece's exit from the Euro is a possible hypothesis. Even acceptable a spite of those, including financial analysts and leading EU politicians, until a few weeks ago, considered this eventuality as the beginning of the end of the single currency. Citigroup has compiled a report in which it is estimated that the chances of a Greek exit from the euro have increased from 50% to 75% in recent months. Analyst Valentin Marinov predicted it within 12 months, at most eighteen.
But among the Germans, Shauble is not the only one who has placed the decision in the hands of Athens. His words come close to those of the German member of the board of the ECB Jörg Asmussen, a militant in the ranks of the social democratic party in the Bundestag today in opposition to that of Shauble and Angela Merkel (Cdu): "There are no alternatives to the savings program – said Asmussen – if Athens wants to remain a member of the Eurozone. The decision is in the hands of Athens”, which could also decide to decline the invitation to austerity and leave the single currency.
However, for Greece, a return to the Drachma could prove to be a worse solution than the rigor of the accounts. Again according to UBS analysts, the Greek currency could suffer a sudden collapse of 60% the day after its return. The exchange rate could reach levels such as to induce Greece's trading partners not to accept exchanges in drachmas, nullifying the only desirable positive effect following the regained possibility of using the weapon of devaluation.
