Europe's electoral May: on Sunday we vote in France, Greece, Germany and Italy

In the European crisis, dominated by the upheavals of the financial markets, politics returns to the field. Next Sunday we vote in France for the second round of the presidential elections, in Greece for the political elections, in Italy for a significant administrative shift, in Germany in the land quasi decider of Schleswig-Holstein (the following Sunday it will be North Rhine-Westphalia's turn), and at the end of the month there will be Ireland's vote on the new European treaty for fiscal union. In short, if politics wanted to strike a blow, this May is the occasion.

And there is no doubt that politics struck a first blow in France with the success of the socialist Hollande in the first round of the presidential elections. Equally obvious is that the probable success of the socialist candidate from next Sunday will have to be dealt with by the other European governments. And, especially Germany. A success by Hollande would also increase the role of Italy and of the Monti government (which, if it is losing points in the polls as regards approval by Italians, still has a lot of prestige at an international level), which could play a decisive role in determining the balance point of relations between the German chancellor and the future French president. Of course, despite favorable polls, the game in France is still open. And everything will depend on how those voters who have already expressed strong anti-political sentiment behave by voting for the extreme right of Marine Le Pen. What seems obvious is that, in any case, the governments of all the other European countries will have to deal with the result of the French vote. Even the financial markets.

Yet politics in Europe continues to be weak and overwhelmed by the markets. In this context, the Greece vote, the country that more than the others is suffering the blows of the economic crisis. How will Greece's anti-political protest express itself next Sunday? The right-left grand coalition will be able to contain the effects of a protest vote, which, as in Italy, supports a caretaker government? If the answer is positive, European markets and chancelleries will breathe a sigh of relief. But if the grand coalition were overwhelmed or in any case greatly weakened, Greece's exit from the Euro would once again become topical, perhaps with a new government ready to denounce the treaties signed so far in Europe. And all this would have strong repercussions in all European politics.

Also the vote of the two German lands is not to be underestimated. Net of the anti-political vote, which could manifest itself with a success of the "Pirates" party, Merkel, who may already have to deal with Sarkozy's possible successor, could see her majority fail and seriously weaken. Liberals are in trouble and, according to some polls, may not pass the threshold. This could lead the chancellor to bet on a new alliance with the social democrats, perhaps after having chosen the path of early elections. And this possible new alliance could favor Hollande's weight, provided he wins next Sunday's ballot.

As for Italy, the outcome of the forthcoming administrative elections, as well as being uncertain, will not be easy to interpret. It will be a vote that will have to deal with variable alliances and fraticidal struggles: on the left, the Democratic Party is not allied everywhere with the more radical left of Vendola, and the more justicialist one of Di Pietro. At the same time the parties of the third pole are, sometimes separately, present in diversified alliances. As for the right, the difficulties of the PDL and the Lega (no longer allies) are obvious and obvious: in many cases the PDL has hidden behind civic lists, to avoid counting. In the League (shaken by scandals over the use of refunds and by internal clashes) it is Bossi himself who predicts that a price will be paid. Even if, in Verona, the Northern League mayor Tosi, close to Maroni, could be confirmed. All the while, despite the careless use of public money, the Northern League seeks to ride and incite protest against government policy, and in particular against the Imu.

Equally high in the PDL is the confusion after Berlusconi. The former premier practically did not participate in the electoral campaign, while the power conflicts between the former AN and various souls of the former Forza Italia are palpable). It's hard to think that, as Berlusconi says, everything is the fault of the acronym Pdl, or that it is enough, as Alfano says, to launch (after the vote) a major proposal on a new party to be born after the administrative elections.

Even the left, however, will have to deal with anti-politics, which, in the opinion of the polls, should above all reward the lists that refer to the five-star movement and Beppe Grillo. In short, it is unlikely that Sunday's vote will dispel the fog of a politically confused situation. And it is, unfortunately, in these unfavorable waters that the Monti government will have to continue to navigate, for which the Italian administrative elections could ultimately prove to be much more indigestible than those taking place in other European countries.