La Cold War She is back. But this time she won't be fighting around the Berlin Wall, but behind the windows of the luxury shopping capital. Hong Kong is the spearhead of a sector that places more than a third of the world total in China, from watches, of which the former British colony is the main sales point, with a turnover that exceeds that of the rest of China and the United States together with the other icons-symbols of the season of global wealth, severely tested by the US-China confrontation, which has cast a sinister shadow on the future of the Asian luxury capital.
At least until yesterday, because, according to analysts, Hong Kong's turnover set to drop by 40% this year, in line with the flight of the giants of luxury, which shortly before the boutiques of Causeway Bay were competing for the highest prices in the world. Today, on the contrary, there are already a thousand rental cancellations, even before Donald Trump declares, as he will do today, that the special status of Hong Kong, guaranteed by compliance with British-style common law, it no longer exists. After the approval by Beijing of the "security law" which cancels the guarantees agreed with London in 1997, Hong Kong is part of China.
What consequences for luxury? The brands have reacted downwards to the crisis.
Back off Salvatore Ferragamo (-3%), one of the most popular brands in Asia, which leaves a portion of the earnings accumulated yesterday to the news of return of Michele Norsa, the ad who played so much in the affirmation of the Florentine brand.
He misses out Moncler (-2,1%) one of the brands that paid dearly for the umbrella protest that hit the streets of the Asian metropolis for a year.
Similar discounts also apply lvmh e Kering, both below a generous 2%, as well Burberry (-4%), the most exposed to Made in China flavours. But the rain of sales hasn't spared either Richemont e Swatch.
It will take at least 2-3 years, Altagamma predicts, so that turnover can return to the record levels of 2019, when the luxury industry recorded sales of 281 billion euros. As long as the Cold War does not lead to the construction of a bamboo curtain which will make it more difficult for Chinese tourists to travel to Europe in the future, the main customers of shops and hotels in the Bel Paese. This is the fear of the big names in luxury, who have already metabolized the disappearance of Hong Kong, which already dropped last year – according to Equita – from 6 to 3% of the sector's global turnover.
