The markets are heading towards a positive end to the week but without significant points, awaiting next week's Fed meeting which should not bring any news on the interest rate front, even if the data arriving today should confirm the loss of momentum in the United States economy: cruising speed, barring unexpected accelerations, will cause the fourth quarter of 2019 to be the second weakest in the last four years, as suggested by the decline in the trade deficit, the lowest in a year and half. Also for this reason, traders are convinced that Donald Trump, grappling with the impending impeachment, has an interest in closing the tariff deal quickly. And confirmation of the progress of the negotiations also arrived from Beijing during the night.
TOKYO LAUNCHES STIMULI FOR 121 BILLION DOLLARS
Plus sign this morning for Asian price lists. Tokyo's Nikkei gains 0,3%, closing the week with an increase of just under half a percentage point (in local currency). Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has launched a robust fiscal stimulus package: 121 billion dollars.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng rises by 0,7%, the weekly balance +0,4%. CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzen price lists +0,2%, +1,5% in the week. The Kospi of Seoul is up by 0,7%, but the week is negative (-0,5%), due to the decline of the won, in dollars, the South Korean stock exchange loses 1,3 this week %.
ARABIA RAISES $25,6 BILLION IN STOCK MARKET
The US markets are also cautious with variations of around 0,10-0,15%, awaiting the data on employment in the United States: the consensus expects that 183.000 new jobs were created in November, an improvement from 128.000 in October. Unemployment is expected to remain stable at 3,6%, hourly wages slightly increasing month on month (+0,3%, from +0,2% in October).
The most important news comes from the oil front. In Vienna, the oil countries said they had reached an agreement in principle on an additional cut of half a million barrels a day, but the announcement did not arouse particular emotion, given the sluggish trend in demand. Brent oil is down by 0,4% to 63,2 dollars a barrel: +0,7% at yesterday's close.
Tonight Saudi Aramco announced it will sell its shares at a price of 32 riyals, equal to $8,53, the figure translates into a 100% capital valuation of $1.700 trillion. It is the largest public stock offering in history, 25,6 billion dollars raised, but much less than hoped for by Prince Mohammed Bin Salman who also had to give up entry to a large international stock exchange.
FROM DOWN JACKETS TO CARS, BRANDS ARE BOOMING
Luxury is the real oil of the markets. Yesterday the attention of the price lists was concentrated on the interest in Moncler and on that in Aston Martin. For the rest, in the absence of any news on duties, the European stock exchanges have not offered any significant news: the lists remain close to their highs without identifying reasons for further progress or for a correction. Meanwhile, no signs of recovery are coming from the real economy: in October industrial orders in Germany surprisingly decreased due to weak domestic and foreign demand: -0,4% compared to the previous month, against estimates of an increase of + 0,4%.
PARIS POSITIVE DESPITE THE CLASHES
Piazza Affari (-0,28%) slips in closing below 23 thousand (22.969 points).
Paris, although paralyzed by the strike against the pension reform, was the only Stock Exchange to close, albeit slightly positive: +0,03%.
Frankfurt yields 0%. The SPD Congress also opens today: the two new leaders of the party have approved a motion to pursue a more cautious approach that could save the coalition government with Angela Merkel's CDU. Madrid -65%
London leaves 0,70% on the ground. On Forex it's time for the pound, which flies to new highs for two and a half years against the euro: cross 0,843. The market is betting on BoJo's landslide victory in the December 12 elections. The new executive should immediately put Brexit into practice in the manner already agreed at the time with Brussels.
ASTON MARTIN RUBBER. JAMES BOND TOWARDS F1
The City's attention was aroused by the news, relaunched by "Autocar", that the Canadian billionaire Lawrence Stroll, owner of the Formula One team Racing Point, is preparing an offer for an important stake in Aston Martin: +18% , for a valuation of £1,3 billion. The title of James Bond's favorite car, unlike Ferrari, has not had any luck on the markets so far: placed at 19 pounds, after yesterday's leap it comes to just under 6.
MONCLER: RUFFINI DOES NOT BELIEVE THE ADVANCES OF GUCCI
“In relation to the rumors reported by some press organs, Remo Ruffini, in his capacity as shareholder of Moncler, specifies that he periodically maintains contacts and talks with investors and other sector operators, including the Kering group, on potential strategic opportunities to promote the development of the company further, without any concrete hypotheses being studied at the moment".
Thus, in the early afternoon, Ruffini, which holds an approximately 22% stake, held back (but not too much) the rumors about a possible marriage with the fashion house owned by Gucci, in response to the purchase of Tiffany by Lvmh's rivals . The operation, according to analysts, makes sense for Kering, too dependent on the profits of Gucci alone to face the formidable fleet of Lvmh.
The Moncler stock, shot up to 11%, closed the day at +7%. But fever has infected the entire sector: Ferragamo +7%, Tod's +5%, Brunello Cucinelli +1,8%, Safilo +4,3%.
According to Equita, in the light of historical m&a multiples in the sector, it is reasonable to assume a 30% premium on current prices. For Akros, the stock deserves a "substantial" increase in value compared to the current price, already over 10,5 billion euros.
Tip also rises by reflex (+2%). Moncler represents 7,5% of the NAV of the holding led by Giovanni Tamburi.
FINAL IN RED FOR BONDS. SPREADS TO 166
Negative end of session for the Italian secondary, particularly heavy, in line with the Eurozone bond, on the ultra-long stretch of the curve.
The spread between Italian and German ten-year bonds is heating up, rising to 166 basis points, with the BTP yield jumping to 1,37%.
However, Fitch improves its growth forecasts, which remain low +0,2%, but better than nothing, as previously estimated. The correction was prompted by the trend in the third quarter, "better than expected".
In general, the abundance of supply weighed on the European market, which saw Paris and Madrid as protagonists this morning, placing a total of 8,5 billion euros.
The yield on the ten-year German Bund rose, to -0,28% from -0,31%. The SPD, a government ally in Germany of the CDU, is clamoring for an increase in public spending.
THE TAX UNKNOWLEDGE ON FCA PROMOTED THE BANKS
Returning to the stock market, Fiat Chrysler fell by 0,85% following the news of the disputes by the Revenue Agency which believes that in 2014, at the time of the Fiat reorganization, with the name change and the move of the registered office to the Netherlands , there has been a significant undervaluation of the assets being transferred, particularly those domiciled in the United States. The maximum risk of disbursement is approximately $1,5 billion.
Leonardo +2%. S&P revised outlook to positive from stable, BB+ rating confirmed.
Banks cautiously lower after the mixed performance of the morning. Down Ubi (-1,26%) and Banco Bpm (-1,44%), positive Banca Mediolanum (+0,76%).
NEW MANEUVERS ON ROME
AS Roma snatches the title (+16,5%) in view of the close final between the president, James Pallotta, and the US Friedkin group for the transfer of ownership of the Giallorossi club. But there is also talk of operations related to the sale of the Tor di Valle land where the new stadium should be built.
Carraro sells 3% after the double-digit leap following the 420 million supply agreement with Ineos Automotive.
