We are heading towards one perfect storm? Many signs suggest yes, but many of those who should be concerned seem more oriented towards postponing its arrival as long as possible rather than preparing effective countermeasures. Sooner or later, but more sooner than later, a number probably close to a million people will cease to "be" employed ope legis, and will have to enter the open sea of the labor market at the state nor in the PNRR nor in the Sostegni bis Decree are there concrete and adequate measures that allow for and govern the gigantic problem of the relocation of those who have (actually have already) lost their jobs. However this does not seem to be the first thought of the Unions (and not even of the entrepreneurs, to tell the truth) nor that of the Minister of Labour.
La CGIL he clearly explained the path he has in mind: extension of the ban on dismissal (and therefore of the CIG which supports it) up to the "strengthening of social safety nets in the direction of universal coverage". That is, in view of a further period of income support. But work?, one might ask.
The answer is ready. It will take "an extraordinary plan for good and stable employment that makes any objective of strengthening social cohesion credible". How to say Peace in the World. When? As? The Syndicate does not provide ideas in this regard. Or rather, some imaginative ideas are still able to exhibit them: so Landini explains “to speed up the times in the tenders and in the execution of the works it is not enough simply to change the rules. Assumptions are made to qualify the contracting stations". Et voilà created employment. Someone my age will remember when the FIOM of Brescia, at the time the vanguard of workers' antagonism, maintained that "we fight against inflation!" winking at the widespread belief that to block the growth of prices it was enough to oblige the Politics to fix them administratively.
I have the impression that in terms of employment policies the approach is still culturally the same: work is created by political will. Which, of course, can only lead to useless measures, such as the "Dignity Decree. A shred of proposal in the field of employment services has not yet been shown: whoever should do so does not seem to be interested, except to repeat the ejaculation on public employment. The centrality of investments is rightly recalled; but if it is true that these create employment, it is also true that the meeting between supply and demand in the labor market does not happen spontaneously, as the US experience is also demonstrating: Firms emerge from the crisis with important innovations, and the profiles professionals of those who have lost their jobs respond little to the question.
It is to fill this gap that the Active Policies. After all, even on investments it would be necessary to be consistent: the very first reform envisaged by the Recovery to facilitate them, that on simplification, meets the hostility of the Union which is already threatening strikes against the revision of the procurement code.
In concrete terms, what the unions are claiming is an indefinite extension of the status quo: no layoffs, CIG for everyone. Even Draghi's mediation, which essentially extends the CIG until October for the weakest sectors with a ban on dismissal and encourages the others to do not fire until the end of the year (but does not prohibit it) is judged insufficient. If the layoffs started, it would be a social bomb, says the union. But pending which event should they be kept blocked? And above all, what tools should be prepared to counteract such worrying unemployment? No one says it, least of all Minister Orlando, who continues to herald the universal reform of social safety nets, evidently choosing to move on terrain acceptable to the union.
The resigned conviction is growing that it is politically simpler and socially reassuring to acknowledge the existence of a labor force "reservoir". assisted sine die, which will be able to partially, or progressively, or even not, be emptied due to the spontaneous dynamics of the Labor Market, without anyone being stressed by having to look for a job with the Damocles sword of the end of assistance? A bag of “guaranteed” workforce, which coexist with the “normal” ones? It is not an idea foreign to the culture of a large part of the union, which has tended to guarantee the insiders and neglect the outsiders. And it is similar to the social vision that underlies the Citizenship Income. I don't think it's a lucid choice, but the desire to extend the freeze on layoffs indefinitely would produce precisely this type of result.
Hard to believe that Draghi could allow such an outcome, catastrophic for the labor market and disastrous for public spending. And I also understand that Draghi may prefer a truce on the labor market while he has to deal with more urgent and complex priorities (think of the various "preparatory" reforms envisaged by the PNRR). But when will it end redundancy shield either we will have built a structured and functioning system of employment services in the meantime, or we will have built a social class of new hopeless clients, the victims of the pandemic. But at that point it will be difficult to avoid the "perfect storm".
