“No alarmism. We are in January, in the middle of winter, and phenomena like these days are normal, even if they don't happen every year. And it is also normal for it to snow in the South, because when the frost arrives from Siberia, the Adriatic regions are the most affected. Forever". Not many of us remember or have seen snow on the beach in Salento, yet it has already happened: to guarantee it is Gianmaria Sannino, climatologist of Aeneas, who also explains how "this cold was widely predicted not only by the weather but even earlier by seasonal climate simulations", a tool that provides detailed and wide-ranging information, which would be very useful to authorities and farmers but which "is not yet sufficiently known and used".
WATCH OUT FOR PRICES, LURKING SPECULATION
Therefore, not yet equipped to foresee these situations, which are not so anomalous, it was above all agriculture that remained on its knees, with extensive damage caused by the wave of frost, especially in the southern regions: “At the moment it is impossible to calculate the damage – explains Lorenzo Bazzana, economic manager of Coldiretti – but we can easily speak of hundreds of millions of euros. Which for the final consumer means possible substantial increases in the prices of fruit and vegetables, also due to speculation".
"Going to look at the historical data, it is true that phenomena of this type have already occurred in the South too - admits Bazzana - but this was not the trend of recent years and then one thing is the temperatures and one thing is a meter of snow, which it causes damage not only to the crop but also to the structures”. Not to mention transport, made impossible for days and which they have caused a 70% decrease in the delivery of agri-food products in Puglia alone: "This does not mean a 70% reduction in production - specifies the manager of Coldiretti -, but that in those days 70% was not delivered, also considering the indirect damage to products, such as dairy products, regularly packaged but not able to just be transported".
Less production and transport difficulties mean of course increase in prices, especially of seasonal products or rather vegetables (artichokes, turnips, cauliflower, chicory, fennel, radicchio and escarole those grown in the field “but also courgettes and tomatoes in greenhouses”, assures Bazzana) and citrus fruits, some of which, however, have already been harvested at this time of year. Should the consumer be concerned? Yes, and Coldiretti explains why: “The increase in wholesale prices has already taken place in recent days, with substantial increases between 50 and 100%. However, this would not justify a possible doubling of retail prices, on supermarket counters, also because the reduction can be offset by purchases from other Italian regions or by imports”.
Let's take, for example, the artichoke, one of the most popular seasonal vegetables, which originally can cost around 30 cents and around 1 euro over the counter. If it were to cost, for example, 2, there is no snow and frost that hold: “No. These days his wholesale price may have gone up to, say, 50 cents, but the multiplier factor does not affect the entire supply chain: I therefore expect that at the counter it could cost 1,30 euros, for example, but certainly not 2, i.e. double the usual. That would be speculation and the Guardia di Finanza and the food police should intervene".
NO ALARMS BUT CLIMATE DANGER REMAINS
Speculations from which we will have to increasingly guard against, in times of climate change. Because if it is true that a very cold winter can be expected and the agricultural world should also be increasingly able to get information and equip itself, it is undeniable that global warming exposes the planet to risks and to the proliferation of extreme phenomena, from snow to drought, floods and everything that can bring a production system and therefore a market to its knees. "In the meantime - explains Sannino di Enea - we can say that for the winter the worst is over: the simulations show a normal February and a milder than average beginning of spring".
"But 2016 - continues Sannino -, in addition to being the hottest year ever, ahead of 2015 and in sequence to all the years from 2010 to today, was also the first year in human history, i.e. in 800 thousand years, in which every day of the year the threshold of 400 ppm (parts per million) of CO2 was exceeded in the world. It had never happened before, it is a disturbing record that makes international agreements such as COP21 even more decisive". The Paris Conference on climate change has established that the increase in temperature must not exceed 2 degrees compared to the pre-industrial era, or about 150 years ago.
In this period of time, depending on the areas (the poles have been most affected) the thermometer has already risen by more than 1 degree on average, causing what we all know as global warming with effects that can also affect our daily lives, from the repercussions on crops to smog, from the heat to tropical storms. “The ceiling has set at 2 degrees because 1 has already been reached – explains the Enea expert -, but that might not be enough. The three main themes remain transport, gas radiators (just in recent days, due to the cold, Italy has reached a record demand of 400 million cubic metres, ed) and energy production in general, which still takes place mostly from fossil sources.
