A Europe in constant trouble with opinion polls (Eurobarometer and others) plummeting: at least 7 Europeans out of ten believe that Europe is all wrong. After years of shared leadership in which, albeit with difficulties and contrasts, progress has been made towards integration, the process has stalled in recent years. So many disparities and obvious contradictions.
1) A austerity which fell like a hard to digest boulder on the weaker Mediterranean countries, while the continental countries had benefited amply from flexibility in exchange for reforms (Germany). France continues to largely exceed the 3% deficit ceiling allowed by the Stability Pact. Italy, which has many reforms in the pipeline, is on the grill for a good six months to find out if it will be granted the expected margin of flexibility.
2) An extreme difficulty to manage the wave of immigrants, from conflicts on registration, to the impossibility of enforcing the division of quotas, to unilateral decisions of acceptance (Germany) or closure (Denmark, Poland, Hungary and who knows how many others). Should the pillar of Schenghen falter?
3) The growing bad moods of the United Kingdom which threaten a Brexit with the risk of crumbling what remains in common, much more than the dreaded Grexit.
4) A marked diversity of treatment in bank bailouts which in the recent past have drawn on public resources and aid from member countries.
5) A bit flagged Juncker plan for the relaunch of investments which is marking time and it is not clear whether it will have resources or it will only be a financial leverage mechanism.
6) An unexplained slowdown in the announced processes of harmonizationprimarily the tax one.
7) A contribution to Turkey to curb migratory flows towards Germany, which would also require additional disbursements from the Member States.
That's enough to fade the management of Jean-Claude Juncker who, with the support of Serge Moscovici, is taking it out on our country. Matteo Renzi had to expect it. "We are not intimidated by dramatic statements," he replied, gaining the support of the PSE group leader in Strasbourg, Gianni Pittella. He will take it for granted. But both grasp the risks of an unsustainable weakness of Europe and at the same time of a growing German arrogance.
Faced with a Europe which is struggling to resume a positive path of integration, with the Member States marching at different speeds and in opposite directions, with the congestion of problems that undermine the Community foundations, the insistence with which the Commission presses Italy on the request for flexibility. It forgets that the real games on which the future of the Union is played are quite different: immigration, expansive economic policies, the revival of culture and common values, innovation, social policies.
The president of the European Commission has become the catalyst for all the tensions that are building up between EU leaders. Just a few days ago he ended up in the crosshairs of the group of socialists in the European Parliament who ordered Juncker to put the agreements on flexibility into practice under penalty of "no confidence" on the part of those who elected him president in Strasbourg (the socialists have 190 MEPs) . A harsh attack that is based on a widespread discontent in the PES for the work of a commission that seems to have “an empty agenda. This is where Juncker's attack on Italy starts.
Perhaps Juncker also went down hard on the Italian reactions to the exclusion of Carlo Zadra. From Rome they had asked that the official be replaced by another Italian. His request stamped with the excuse that officials are not chosen on the basis of nationality. In any case, whatever Juncker's reasons may be, Renzi rejects them to the sender and does not give up on the last battle fronts: asking for clarifications on the European allocation of 3 billion euros to Turkey, decided at the end of November to manage the migrant crisis; counter the 'mini-Schengen' that Germany would like together with other northern countries.
Economy Minister Pier Carlo Padoan clarifies Italy's position to Ecofin arguing that the resources are taken from the European budget to avoid the risk of paying out 300 million to help Erdogan without bringing home the approval of the stability law still under examination by the EU Commission until April, while bears expenses for the reception of refugees in Italy equal to 3 billion a year. And what will happen to this money? How will they be used? To build refugee camps, for projects to integrate migrants? And again, if the aid to Turkey does not fall within the budget constraints, even the 0,2% requested by Italy should receive a similar treatment.
The new foreign strategy of the Italian government moves from these positions: the request for clarifications on aid to Turkey extends to the question of respect for human rights by Erdogan as a clear act of anti-Merkel dissent to which is added the contrast to the North Stream and the new openings towards Putin.
It will be said that the Italian surge reflects domestic political concerns to debunk the criticisms of the M5s. Even if that were the case, Italy did well to put its foot down on the necessary flexibility given that its agenda is full of reforms and given that errors and missteps continue to accumulate on the European front, weakening the credibility of the institutions. Italy cannot afford a rejection of a program largely aimed at increasing consumption which, as underlined by Standard & Poor's, currently represents the priority for relaunching the tepid growth that has just begun.
The next meetings with Merkel and Junker himself in Rome will be the testing ground not only for Renzi but for an expansive political strategy which in our opinion has no alternatives.
