The wind of protest is blowing in the streets of Victoria, Hong Kong's financial district. And while the police charge the protesting students, the stock market falls by 2,3%. But, at least for now, the anti-system wave does not touch the other Chinese lists: Shanghai +0,3%. The dollar wind is blowing even stronger, driven by US recovery data. This morning the greenback has already broken new records on the euro traded at 1,2667 and on the yen (109,38). The Tokyo Stock Exchange opens the week up 0,7%.
Once again, central banks will be the big stars of the financial week. On Thursday, in Naples, the meeting of the directorate of the European Central Bank will be held, probably dedicated to fine-tuning the details of the ABS purchases, according to the plan developed by Mario Draghi, despite the manifest opposition of the Bundesbank and part of the government German, including Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaueble. Also for this reason there is strong anticipation for the president's press conference. In the meantime, Draghi's constant messages guaranteeing an “accommodative interest rate policy for the long term” contributed to the fall of the euro against the dollar.
In the USA, the most eagerly awaited appointment is set for Friday, when the employment data will come out: in September, forecasts say, the US economy should have absorbed another 210 workers, but the unemployment rate should have remained at 6,1, XNUMX%. More positive numbers will add pressure on the Fed to accelerate rate hikes.
BTP AT AUCTION, WEIGHING THE PIMCO CRISIS
Strong expectations this morning for the Italian Treasury auctions after the outcome of the Bot auction: strong demand /13 billion against the offer of 7) but growing yields (0,232% against 0,136%). 5-year BTPs will be offered for an amount between 2 and 2,5 billion, 2,5-year bonds between 3 and 2,5 billion, Ccteu between 3 and 2020 billion maturing in 2. 12 billion German securities will also be auctioned XNUMX months. But attention will be focused on the secondary market, made electric by the resignation from Pimco, the giant of the bond market, of Bill Gross who will lead the competitor Janus Capital starting this morning.
On Friday the "divorce", linked to the recent vicissitudes of Pimco's Total return fund (18 billion dollars of the ETF are invested in Italian Treasury bonds, in second place behind the US T bonds) caused the first shocks in the afternoon: the US 2,50-year yields rose from 2,55 to 2,35%, while 2,39-year BTPs rose from XNUMX to XNUMX%.
The reactions on the markets to the prospect of flows between the two companies were immediate. According to Bernstein's analysts, the exit of the founder and leader (for over 40 years) of the group could generate capital outflows of between 10 and 30% of the total value : Allianz, Pimco's controlling shareholder, on Friday lost the 6%, Janus jumped 38%.
MILAN REMAINS THE LEADER DL 2014 STOCK EXCHANGE
The strength of the dollar and the sudden resignation of Bill Gross from the top management of Pimco concentrated the attention of the week. At the end of a week of high volatility, US stocks closed in the red for the first time since the beginning of August: Dow Jones -1%, S&P -1,4% and Nasdaq -1,5%. On Friday, however, the stock exchanges recovered part of the lost ground after the publication of the definitive figure for US GDP in the second quarter, which rose by 4,6%. On the corporate front, the Starboard Value fund, after having acquired a significant stake in Yahoo, asks the CEO Marissa Mayer in a letter to evaluate a merger with AOL. “We believe it's the best way to reduce costs and tax-efficiently monetize Yahoo's non-core stock holdings,” i.e. the capital gains realized by selling shares of Alibaba. Yahoo was up 3,84% on Friday, AOL was up 2,65%.
The European lists are also in negative territory. Frankfurt -3,6% pays for the negative data coming from the German economy. Down also London -2,8% and Paris -1,5%. Madrid -1,3%. The European Stoxx 600 index closed the week down 1,7%. Year-to-date performance drops to +4,2%. Milan's decline was more limited: Piazza Affari fell by 0,84%. Since the beginning of the year, the Italian list remains the best, gaining 9,6%. Spotlight on Brazil, less than ten days before the elections. The real -2,1% during the week, the worst currency among emerging countries (with the exception of Colombia), recovered 0,3% on Friday after the latest polls that show challenger Marina Silva almost on par with the outgoing president Dilma Rousseff, unwelcome to the markets. Bovespa also scored a 2,2% increase on Friday.
TELECOM ITALIA, THE MARKET EVALUATES THE ARGENTINE AGREEMENT
Test for Telecom Italia (+1,5% on Friday) in Piazza Affari on the resolutions of the board of directors which on Friday evening granted a new extension to Finteci for the purchase of Telecom Argentina. In reality, rather than an extension, it is a new contract: David Martinez, according to what has been learned, will benefit from a postponement for the conclusion of the purchase (850 million) in exchange for specific guarantees, such as a surety and indemnity in the event the Buenos Aires authorities do not give the go-ahead for the sale due to the buyer's antitrust problem. The board also took stock of the situation in Brazil, dominated by rumors of an upcoming offer on Tim Brasil.
Meanwhile, the echo of Sol Trujillo's “Disneyland” offer (as the councilor Tarak Ben Ammar defined it) for the Italian group does not turn off. Francesco Di Leo, former CEO of Telecom Italia, notes that "Trujillo has friends in Italy, other than Disneyland".
BANKS, LAST MOVES BEFORE THE EXAMS
Countdown to the ECB exams. Until tomorrow, the banks will be able to make the latest corrections on the tasks, i.e. carry out the operations (issues of hybrid securities, buy backs, etc.) which will be taken into consideration in the results of the Assets quality Reviews and in the stress tests. The news that this morning Pop Milano will early extinguish the bond with a total nominal value of one billion euros maturing on March 23, 2015 backed by state guarantees fits into this context. Then there will be the meetings in Frankfurt, in October, with the authorities. Finally, on Sunday 26 October, the verdict should arrive: in the following six months, the institutions will have to remedy any capital "gaps" highlighted by the exams.
While waiting for the deadlines, Italian banks have been showered with a severe report by the IMF on the limits of the governance of Popolari and on the presence of Foundations in the governance of institutions. On the equity front, it should be noted that Blackrock has reduced its presence in Unicredit below 5%.
THE INCREASES OF BENI STABILI AND IGD ARE UNDERWAY. THE AIM GIVES THE ACCOUNTS
The construction sites for the capital increases of the real estate companies are opening. The Beni Stabili operation begins this morning. The company will offer a maximum of 353.122.982 ordinary shares in the ratio of one new stock for every 8 shares held, at a unit price of €0,424. The deal will close on October 17 (October 15 in France), while the rights will be listed until October 10.
The increase in IGD is also starting. The company will offer a maximum of 396.186.629 ordinary shares in the ratio of 11 new shares for every 10 shares held, at a unit price of €0,504. The operation will end on 17 October, while the rights relating to the capital increase will be listed until 10 October.
In the meantime, the public offer of Italiaonline continues. Naguib Sawiris, the controlling shareholder, values the company at around 300 million euros.
Shower of half-yearly data arriving on Aim. The boards of directors of: Agronomy are foreseen; Ambromobiliare ; Blue Note; Ecosuntek-Energy Lab; Frendy Energy; Leone Film Group (a film directed by Giuseppe Tornatore was announced on Friday); Lucisano Media Group; MP7 Italy; Net Insurance; Sunshine Capital Investments;- Te Wind.
