The Italian government could launch a series of sanctions against Egypt if the Cairo authorities do not clarify the murder of Giulio Regeni. For the moment, the contacts established during the mission of the 60 Italian entrepreneurs who, following Minister Guidi, were in Egypt just when the body of the researcher was found have been suspended. However, it is not excluded that much heavier measures will arrive in the coming weeks.
In an interview with Corriere della Sera, the foreign minister, Paolo Gentiloni, he said that if "convincing answers" do not arrive from Egypt, we will take the consequent steps. Rome demands from Cairo "the truth - he added -, ie the identification of those responsible", and a leap in quality is needed in investigative collaboration, "because not all the requested documents and materials have been delivered. Furthermore, it is necessary to be able to carry out at least part of the investigations together. Collaboration cannot be just formal. The dripping of improbable leads multiplies the pain of the family and offends the whole country".
In the event of sanctions, the diplomatic confrontation risks turning into a high-value economic game. Italy is today the Egypt's second largest European trading partner after Germany, with an exchange worth a total of 5 billion euros a year. Moreover, relations between the two countries are growing: according to Istat data, in 2014 the turnover increased by 9,9% compared to 2013, while Sace forecasts an increase of 4,7% for Italian exports to Egypt in 2016 (to 3,1 billion), after the 7% jump recorded in 2015. Expectations are also positive for 2017 (+5,6%) and for 2018 (+4,7%, at 3,4 billion). Italy mainly exports goods related to mechanical engineering, refining and metallurgy to the North African country. Imports, on the other hand, concern hydrocarbons, basic metals and chemical products.
Meanwhile, Cairo is encouraging the influx of foreign capital and Al Sisi has announced an investment plan of 80/90 billion dollars for a series of major works in various sectors (energy, residential construction, infrastructure, tourism, transport and logistics). These funds also affect the over 100 Italian companies operating in Egypt and whose activities range from energy to construction, from hydrocarbons to textiles, from mechanics to credit.
The leader of this group of companies is theEni, the main producer of hydrocarbons in the country with about 200 barrels of oil equivalent per day. Landed in Egypt in 1954, last August the energy group discovered in the waters of the North African country the Zohr gas field, the largest in the Mediterranean, with a gas potential of 850 billion cubic meters and an area of approximately 100 square kilometres. Furthermore, in the last three years, Eni has doubled oil production in the Western Desert and Abu Rudeis concessions in Gulf of Suez, also giving new impetus to production in the onshore Nile Delta following the discovery of Nidoco NW 2 (Nooros prospect) already in production.
Precisely for the development of the field in the Nile DeltaEni signed a $5 billion deal last July. This was one of the eight agreements signed by Italian companies on the sidelines of a meeting in Rome between Prime Minister Matteo Renzi and Egyptian Prime Minister Ibrahim Mahlab. The total value of the contracts, all related to the energy sector, was 8 billion and 488 million dollars.
In particular, Technip signed an agreement regarding the two refineries of Midor (1,4 billion dollars) and Assiut (1,6 billion dollars), while Ansaldo signed a 218 million euro agreement with the Egyptian Electricity Holding Company. Edisonfinally, it signed a contract worth approximately 100 million euros with the Egyptian Qalaa Energy for the construction of a 180 MW thermoelectric plant which will produce electricity for the Egyptian market.
Now the shadow of the diplomatic crisis is extending over all these affairs. At the beginning of February, Eni had asked the Egyptian government for credible and rapid answers on the Regeni case: the invitation, however, fell into nothing and the Cairo authorities continue to support less credible versions of the researcher's murder.
