It is well known that one of the main structural limits to the growth of our economy is the stagnation of productivity, just as it is well known that there are many factors at the origin of this stagnation. Of all the possible levers available to counter this trend, human capital plays a pre-eminent role: with a term taken from economic literature, human capital is defined as the endowment of workers and their skills, by analogy with physical capital (machines, technologies, material infrastructures). In fact, it is on its own workers, efficiently combined with its own endowment of physical capital, that the economic wealth of a country is based.
In this context, it is known that Italy has a limit in quantitative terms since the drop in the birth rate that began in the 80s has severely limited population growth, starting with the working age population. In fact, since 1993 it had begun to contract and only the influx of immigrants has made it possible to halt and reverse this trend since the 2000s (Fig. 1). However, the migratory flow has not prevented the active population from aging (Fig. 2): if in 1985 more than half of the population (54.5%) was under 40 years old (and 30% were under 34.3), today this proportion is radically changed and the under 40s and under 30s are respectively 43.7% and 23.6%. Aging thus challenges not only pension systems but also the labor market, as it changes the characteristics of workers, their propensity for risk, their mix of skills, aptitudes, etc. Evaluating its effects on productivity is difficult because a large set of variables come into play. Among these, one of the most important is the quality of the workers themselves: to counteract the reduction in the number of workers and their aging, it is essential to increase their skills.
But how to measure skills? The first step, perhaps trivial but still a good starting point, is to measure the level of schooling. Well, if compared with that of other European countries such as France and Germany, the average schooling of the Italian population remains largely lower, despite the strong recovery that took place after the war and with the raising of compulsory schooling to lower secondary school. It is a problem that we carry with us from the past, a legacy of the very low schooling rates of the elderly, but not only that. In fact, examining the level of schooling of the youngest segments of the population (Fig. 3), it emerges that still today 39% of the Italian youth population has only completed compulsory schooling and the percentage of graduates remains a minority (15%) and much lower than those of Germany (at 21%) and France and Spain (at 34%).
Certainly it is not just a matter of educational qualifications and years spent in school, but also, and perhaps above all, of acquired skills. In this field, as is well known, our country does not have a tradition of evaluation comparable to that of many advanced countries. However, referring to the work of the Agnelli Foundation, which has been involved in studying the Italian school for years, it emerges that the gap remains high also in terms of skills: Italian students are (among OECD countries) among the last for mathematical skills science, ranked 21st in reading ability at age 15. A deficiency that is not filled later: almost a quarter of young Italian adults (25-34 years old) still do not reach the minimum levels of reading and text comprehension skills and, overall, 60% are at medium-low levels. It must be said that even in this field there are large differences both in territorial terms (students from the North reach levels of proficiency higher than those of the South) and by type of school: if in primary school, Italian schools are among the first in Europe, in middle school, Italian students' learning plummets in international rankings. Subsequently, the results depend on the course of study: in high schools there is a recovery of skills also in international comparison, while in vocational education the delay is accentuated.
A structural delay on which the crisis may have acted in opposite directions: on the one hand there may have been a positive effect deriving from the incentive for companies to invest more in training and organization and for individuals to stay longer in the school system and formative. On the other hand, during the recession "on the job" training (learning by doing) is reduced and the reduced financial resources of families can limit the university education of young people, who are forced to enter the labor market to compensate for the loss of income of the family of origin. We do not have measures for these phenomena, however we observe that between 2007 and 2013 the percentage of 6-year-olds enrolled in university dropped by 19 points, certainly not a good sign.
Overall, therefore, a non-positive picture and not up to par with the need to deal with the narrowing of the job offer for demographic reasons, nor with the growing demand for skills that comes from modern societies, starting from basic knowledge to get to those on advanced technologies. A picture that confirms the still inadequate investment, in quantity and quality, of Italian society - institutions, families and businesses - in the education of its younger generations as well as in training throughout their working lives. In this context of substantial lack of interest, one can perhaps understand why there is no trace of these issues in the debate that is accompanying the school reform law. Absence that is understood but certainly cannot be justified.
But we also want to grasp the positive side of this situation: contrary to the more advanced economies, from those of Northern Europe to the United States, where the levels of schooling are now very high, in our country there is ample space for the level of education and the wealth of knowledge and professionalism of the population can increase and therefore contribute to raising the average productivity of our economy and, with it, its rate of potential development.
