from Ifi, Institute for International Finance chaired by Charles Dallara, comes yet another warning for Spanish banks. According to a study conducted using the Irish situation as a yardstick, the institution deduced that the amount of non-performing loans on the balance sheets of many Spanish savings banks could be much heavier than the 180 billion estimated so far.
The Ifi has not expressed itself clearly, but has indicated that the "damaged loans" could settle within the range 218-260 billion. However, the exact figure could probably turn out to be very close to the high end of the range, classifying as "suffering" almost all of Spanish banking exposure to the real estate sector, estimated at around 300 billion euros.
A considerably pejorative estimate which, not surprisingly, is publicized after Moody's downgrading of numerous savings banks which, according to Ifi, may soon need government intervention.
Indirectly, Ifi's statement offers support to the requests that Rajoy has repeatedly addressed to the banks, asking them to fully recognize the losses deriving from the real estate crash and consequently increase the provisions.
For its part, the executive could soon find itself forced to increase the stake in the colossus Bankia, partially nationalized after the injection of 4,4 billion euros was converted into shares.
The bank, currently under public control for 45% of the capital, seems about to ask for a new state intervention, equal to 10 billion eurosthrough the purchase of shares in Banco Financiero y de Ahorros, the group's holding company. Nothing official for now, but the leaked rumors also reveal the government's difficulty in keeping tension low: just a few days ago, the Finance Minister had defined Bankia as an institution that "it has enormous strength".
Meanwhile, to limit the damage, Madrid has denied that bank runs have begun: the increase in withdrawals in Spain is being monitored but a "banking run" is not appearing. The drop in deposits in European banks has so far hit Greece above all (-30%), but Spain is currently recording a modest decrease in 4%.
However, the authorities keep the situation under very strict control: what may seem like a seasonal phenomenon of customer decline could, in the event of a sudden escalation of the Greek crisis, degenerate into a real banking panic.
European leaders will also deal with this at tomorrow's summit in Brussels: the danger of a systemic collapse has highlighted the need to prepare, in addition to more powerful "firewalls" against the contagion of sovereign debts, also a European deposit guarantee fund.
A fund that is lacking, given that each country has its own regulations and institutions and there is no community body responsible for the protection of current account holders.
