The era of cheap oil has now come to an end, while the golden age of gas is approaching. In 2035, an annual final energy demand of 16.961 tons of oil equivalent (toe) will be recorded. Compared to current consumption, which is around 12 billion toe, the growth would therefore be 40% overall, with an average annual rate of 1,3%. Above all, China will be responsible for this increase, which will confirm itself as the largest energy consumer on the planet and which in 2035 will use almost double the energy needs consumed by the United States. This is what emerges from the World Energy Outlook 2011, the annual report drawn up by the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The dossier predicts that oil consumption will drop from 87 to 99 million barrels per day, but production costs will rise steadily due to the contraction of oil resources. As a result, there will be an increase in the price of the barrel which will not fall below the 120 dollar level.
On the other hand, natural gas will have an ever greater weight in the basket of primary sources. In 2035, according to IEA estimates, there will be an increase in demand of around 55% overall. A great importance will be assumed by unconventional gas which will come to make up about a fifth of world production.
Renewable energies, excluding hydroelectric, will rise from 3% in 2009 to 15% in 2035 in the calculation of global electricity generation, mainly thanks to annual subsidies which will increase almost fivefold to 180 dollars. China and the European Union will lead the expansion of these sources, contributing about 50% of the growth. Hydroelectricity will provide a contribution to world electricity production that will remain at around 15%, with China, India and Brazil covering almost half of the 680 gigawatts of new capacity.
