"Faced with the Russian escalation in Ukraine, a submissive or accommodating attitude would be counterproductive, but it would also be wrong to adopt a strategy based only on containment and dissuasion". These are the words of Ettore Greco, director of the Institute for International Affairs (IAI), who today presented in Rome "Choosing to count", the 2014 edition of the annual report on Italian foreign policy.
"Although the prospect of a strategic partnership with Moscow appears extremely remote at the moment - reads the study -, the door must remain open to the resumption of cooperation both in the economic and in the strategic political fields", but we must also continue in the policy of sanctions , which, however, "to be effective, will have to be graduated in relation to Russian behaviour".
Three former foreign ministers were also present at today's meeting: Massimo D'Alema, Franco Frattini and Emma Bonino. The first believes that Europe must "reject any attack on the integrity of the former Soviet countries, containing the strong recovery of nationalism and the spirit of revenge that are spreading in Russia".
On the other hand, D'Alema believes that the system of sanctions implies imbalances on the Western front, since “the US costs nothing, while Europe risks a great deal. Indeed, for the United States the sanctions even represent an opportunity, because in the future they could increase arms exports to Europe, where a new market for American gas would also open up”.
As for the possible repercussions on relations with other strategic countries, Frattini argues that - if relations with Moscow are not restored - European interests risk being compromised also "in Turkey, Syria, Iran and Egypt". Not only that: a good part of the EU's "energy strategy" should also be rethought, which would benefit "perhaps someone else, certainly not Europe".
Just the amount of gas that Russia exports to the West guarantees Putin a large part of his current leeway for political and military action. For this reason, Bonino underlines how much "the lack of energy interconnection in Europe has weighed on Europe's current weak position: today gas flows only travel from east to west, while we are unable to pump gas from west to east . The result is that some countries, including Italy not included, depend 80 if not 100% on Russian supplies”.
Taking these factors into account, the IAI says that the European Union should change some of its policies. First of all the strategy towards Russia, with which an agreement should be "attempted on the respective roles in the neighboring areas, rethinking the Eastern Partnership and the cooperation projects with the countries of Eastern Europe and the Caucasus".
Secondly, according to the Institute it would be necessary to rethink "the division of burdens and responsibilities at the transatlantic level", putting "the role of NATO and that of the EU in harmony in the region, to avoid dangerous short circuits". A third front of action is that of "cooperative security", which should go through "the relaunching or updating of the various OSCE mechanisms, and, if possible, also those currently frozen within NATO".
