The Italian economy, after the strong rebound last year, recorded a slight decline in activity in the first three months of 2022. Between January and March the Italian GDP decreased by 0,2% compared to the previous quarter (+0,7%), however, on a trend basis, growth is still sustained, just under 6%, thanks to the good performance "of agriculture, on the supply side, and of national demand" . These are the main estimates photographed by Istat. Meanwhile, the inflation data, which after nine months of acceleration, slowed down in April, although it remained at a level not seen since September 1991, due to energy goods with the shopping cart rising by 6%. Data that confirm the very sustained upward trend during the year.
The growth expectations acquired for 2022 have been revised downwards
As regards the Italian gross domestic product - adjusted for calendar effects and seasonally adjusted - it decreased by 0,2% compared to the last quarter of 2021 and grew by 5,8% in trend terms. These are provisional data, underlines Istat, which is why it is not yet possible to go into detail on the components of the Italian economy. For the time being, it is believed that the decline is the synthesis "of an increase in added value in the agriculture, forestry and fishing sectors, a reduction in the services sector and a stationary situation in industry". On the demand side, on the other hand, "the national component (gross of inventories) gave a positive contribution while the net foreign component made a negative contribution".
A figure that in any case lowers the growth expectations acquired for 2022, revised slightly downwards, reaching +2,2%. Never as in this period, however, the forecasts are volatile and linked to what is happening in Ukraine.
Inflation slows down but spreads to other sectors
As for inflation, according to preliminary estimates by Istat, the national consumer price index for the whole community (nic) - gross of tobacco - increased by 0,2% compared to March and by 6,2% % on an annual basis (compared to +6,5% in March). This tendential slowdown is mainly attributable to prices of energy goods, above all to the regulated component which slows down by more than 10% compared to March, remaining at +71,4%. Core inflation, ie net of energy goods and fresh foodstuffs, rose from +1,9% to +2,5%.
Even the cyclical increase in the nic was greatly affected by the drop in energy prices as it largely resizes the increase in services related to transport (+2,8%), processed food (+2%) and unprocessed food (+0,8%).
If the increases, albeit sustained, in energy slow down, inflationary tensions, underlines the Institute, continue to spread to other sectors: processed food, durable and non-durable goods and transport services. In detail, the acceleration in the prices of processed food has caused the growth in so-called food prices to rise by one percentage point shopping cart which thus rose to 6%. Istat detects it on the basis of initial estimates.
Furthermore, Istat has estimated an increase in the harmonized index of consumer prices (hypca) of 0,6% on a monthly level and 6,6% on an annual basis. The more positive cyclical variation compared to nic is due to the end of the seasonal sales. As regards the inflation acquired for 2022, it became +5,3% for the general index and +2,1% for the core component.
